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Market Wire, North America

Canada’s Economy Slows as US Wage Gains Accelerate

The Canadian economy ran out of momentum toward the end of the first quarter, helping bolster market-implied odds on an imminent pivot to easing by the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product missing forecasts with a 0.2 percent expansion in February, following a downwardly-revised 0.5-percent expansion in January. The services sector led gains for a second month, but goods-producing industries flatlined. Just 12 of 20 economic sectors reported positive growth, down from the prior month’s 18. On a year-over-year basis, activity rose 0.8 percent, with the first quarter tracking toward a...

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Inflation Progress Stalls, Putting Fed Cuts Further Out of Reach

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure remained stuck at elevated levels in March, but a feared overshoot was avoided, helping alleviate market tensions. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.3 percent in March from the prior month, but January’s number was revised higher to 0.5 percent, bringing the three-month annualised pace up to 4.4 percent, well above the central bank’s target range. On a year over year basis, base effects saw core price growth stabilising at 2.8 percent, the same as in February, slightly higher than consensus estimates....

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Dollar Juggernaut Slows, But Remains Powerful

Treasury yields are slipping and the dollar appears on the verge of snapping a five-day winning streak, but losses look likely to remain moderate after Fed chair Jerome Powell effectively reset the clock on rate cuts, suggesting that the central bank would need to see several more monthly inflation reports before beginning to ease policy. Speaking during a question-and-answer session in Washington yesterday, Powell said “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence” in inflation’s return to target, and “instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence”. “We think policy is...

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Bank of Canada Stays Cautious, Disappointing Doves

As had been widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, and language in the accompanying statement, Monetary Policy Report, and prepared comments remained steadfastly neutral, leaving market expectations for a rate cut at the June meeting largely unchanged. It the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers acknowledged weakness in the economy at the end of last year, and noted that labour market conditions continue to ease. “Employment has been growing more slowly than the working-age population and the unemployment rate has risen gradually, reaching 6.1 percent in March”. But updated...

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US Inflation Comes In Hot, Lowering Odds on June Rate Cut

Consumer price growth remained stubbornly elevated in the United States last month, suggesting that hotter-than-expected prints in January and February were not simply driven by seasonal aberrations, and raising doubts around the Federal Reserve’s plan to deliver three rate cuts over the remainder of the year. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.8 percent in March from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This exceeded consensus estimates among economists polled by the major...

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