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Market Brief, North America

12 Jan 2023

Anticipation Builds Ahead of Critical US Inflation Report

Markets are on high alert ahead of what might be the post-pandemic world’s most consequential economic data release: the US consumer price index. Consensus estimates suggest headline prices fell 0.1 percent month-over-month in December, decelerating to 6.5 percent annualized from 7.1 in the month prior. Excluding food and energy, prices are expected to rise 0.3 and 5.7 percent. The risk of a violent adjustment in foreign exchange markets is real: an above- or below-consensus print could trigger a reappraisal of the odds on a 50 basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s February meeting, and unleash sharp short-term moves in...

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11 Jan 2023

Markets Remain Unnervingly Calm Ahead of Inflation Numbers

Liquidity conditions remain remarkably thin across currency markets as participants cut risk ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report. Equity markets are consolidating yesterday’s gains, ten-year Treasury yields are 3 basis points lower overnight, the Canadian dollar is down even as oil advances, and no major currency pair is more than a quarter-percentage point off levels that prevailed when we penned yesterday’s note. We’re borrrrrrred. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoided providing anything that could be construed as forward guidance at yesterday’s conference on central bank independence in Stockholm. In a speech focused on the Fed’s unique and specific mandate, Mr. Powell...

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10 Jan 2023

Markets Go Eerily Quiet As Data Calendar Calms

Currency markets are treading water this morning, with most majors turning in a mixed performance against the dollar ahead of Thursday’s all-important US inflation print. Treasury yields are moving in almost-imperceptible ranges, equity bourses are mostly flat, and the commodities complex is advancing incrementally as the session proceeds. The Canadian dollar is holding steady, but appears to be building a foothold that could support gains later in the week if US price growth subsides in line with expectations. Japan’s yen is trading on a more solid footing after Tokyo consumer prices jumped 4 percent year-over-year in December, topping market forecasts...

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09 Jan 2023

Bulls Stay in the Ascendant after ‘Goldilocks’ Jobs Report

Financial markets are very happy with their porridge this morning. Equities are up, yields are soft, and the dollar is trading near a seven-month low. Friday’s just-right non-farm payrolls report, in which unemployment fell and wage gains were surprisingly muted, had a profound impact on investor psychology, convincing many that the Federal Reserve’s much-vaunted “soft landing” scenario is being borne out in the data. The jobs numbers look incredibly positive: 223,000 positions were added in December, the unemployment rate fell back to a 53-year low at 3.5 percent, and revisions showed average hourly earnings growth subsiding to 4.1 percent year-over-year....

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06 Jan 2023

Dollar rises as markets brace for strong jobs number

The dollar is climbing against all of its major rivals as traders buy insurance against another strong jobs report. Economists think US non-farm payrolls, out at 8:30, will rise by 200,000 in December, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7 percent. The “whisper number” on Wall Street appears closely aligned, with most market participants prepared for a print between 150,000 and 250,000 that keeps the Federal Reserve on a tightening trajectory – suggesting that a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news dynamic could hit the greenback in the minutes after the release. The Canadian dollar remains on a defensive footing even as Statistics Canada...

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