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Market Brief, North America

07 Nov 2023

Fedspeak back in driver’s seat

 Aaaaannd we’re back. Ten-year Treasuries are again yielding more than 4.63 percent and the dollar is up after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve’s Neel Kashkari warned rates might have further to climb in the months ahead. “Before we declare that we’re absolutely done, we’ve solved the problem, let’s get more data and see how the economy evolves,” he told Fox News yesterday, “We need to let the data keep coming to us to see if we really have got the inflation genie back in the bottle”. As if to punctuate Kashkari’s point, the Reserve Bank of Australia last night set a...

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06 Nov 2023

Peak rates optimism delivers market relief

Markets are steadying after last week’s stunning rally. Equity and commodity futures are edging higher ahead of the North American open, the dollar is trading near a six-week low, and Treasury yields are lower across the curve, with the ten-year trading at 4.59 percent after breaking the 5 percent barrier in late October. To sum up last week’s events: the Treasury said it would push less bond supply into markets than had been feared, the Federal Reserve turned slightly more dovish, and Friday’s jobs report showed labour markets showing clear signs of easing, giving the central bank further room to...

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03 Nov 2023

Directional momentum slows into US payrolls report

Happy non-farm payrolls day, to all who celebrate. Ahead of the most important release on the monthly economic calendar, markets are working to demolish the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” narrative. Investors, apparently comforted by Jerome Powell’s words during Wednesday’s post-meeting press conference, have dramatically lowered odds on another interest rate hike in the coming months, and have moved to add two rate cuts to 2024 – in addition to the two already priced in. After breaking above 5 percent for the first time since 2007 last week, ten-year Treasury yields have lost almost 35 basis points, marking one of...

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02 Nov 2023

Fed pivot hopes boost markets

Yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision was seen as tilting dovish, with a newfound emphasis on “tighter financial conditions” taken to mean that higher bond yields are negating the need for further rate hikes. Ten-year government bond yields fell below 4.75 percent for the first time since mid-October, extending a move that began earlier in the session when the Treasury Department said it would ramp up issuance more slowly, and accelerated after the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index tumbled more than expected. Equities gained, and the dollar fell against all of its major counterparts. This was to be expected: several officials,...

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31 Oct 2023

Dollar eases amid heavy macro data flow

The US dollar and yields are edging lower after the US Treasury surprised investors by lowering its estimates for government borrowing in the fourth quarter, helping ease fears of a supply-led melt-up in rates. According to yesterday’s release, net issuance is expected to hit a record $776 billion over the final three months of the year, but this is down from the $852 billion projected in late July as higher-than-anticipated tax receipts help offset funding requirements. Tomorrow morning’s issuance plan – which will outline the cadence and scale of auctions – could have a more meaningful effect on the rates...

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