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Market Brief, North America

Market Briefing: Markets Go Quiet Ahead of 2023’s Last Data Releases

‘Tis the day before the night before Christmas, and all through the markets, not a trader is stirring, not even one with a mouse. Trading ranges are narrow and volumes are down after better-than-forecast economic data triggered a selloff during yesterday’s session, lifting the dollar and crushing nascent rallies in risk-sensitive currencies. Upward revisions in consumer spending and business investment categories lifted third quarter gross domestic product to 3.2 percent annualized, up from the previously-reported 2.9 percent, and the number of jobless claims came in below economist estimates – suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are not delivering the...

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Market Briefing: Consumer Confidence Numbers Deliver Good Tidings for Financial Markets

In a festive combination, data released yesterday showed US consumers growing less worried about inflation and more optimistic on the economy. In December, the Conference Board’s measure of US consumer confidence climbed to its highest levels since April as income gains continued and price pressures began to ease. The headline index jumped to 108.3 in December from 101.4 in the prior month, supporting hopes for sustained corporate earnings growth. Inflation expectations fell to the lowest levels in a year, reducing some of the impetus behind the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign. Markets rallied through much of the session, and are only...

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Market Briefing: Currencies Rangebound As Liquidity Ebbs

Currency traders are all nestled in their spreads, with visions of sweet incomes dancing in their heads. Equities and risk-sensitive currencies are inching higher, the dollar is trading on a mixed basis against its major rivals, and Treasury yields are slightly weaker across the curve. Japan’s yen is holding onto gains achieved on Monday when the central bank shocked markets by opting to relax its yield-suppression efforts. Even if the Bank of Japan’s policy adjustment was not designed to tighten financial conditions, the effect has been just that: two-year government bond yields are above zero for the first time since...

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Market Briefing: Fright Before Christmas Stirs Creatures in FX Markets

Santa Claus might not come this year. The jolly old elf—known for putting gifts in the stockings of good little boys and girls across the financial markets each December—was shot down over Tokyo last night by a central banker wielding a monetary policy-guided surface-to-air missile. His condition is unknown at this time. In a surprise decision, the Bank of Japan increased the upper limit for its ten-year government bond target from 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, almost doubling effective interest rates in one of the world’s most important funding currencies. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the move was aimed at reducing...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Retreats After Messi Weekend

With traders returning to their terminals after an exceptionally unpredictable and entertaining World Cup, a final round of year-end rebalancing is driving most major currencies up against the dollar. Treasury yields are flat, commodity prices are firmer, and equity futures are pointing to incremental gains at the open. Japan’s yen is stabilizing after an unusually-volatile weekend trading session. On Saturday, the Kyodo news agency, citing government sources, said Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was planning to work with the next Bank of Japan Governor on adding “flexibility” to the country’s inflation target – a step that could pave the way for...

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