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Market Brief, North America

27 Oct 2023

Growing conviction in US “soft landing” supports risk appetite

Markets are trading with a mildly supportive tone this morning after yesterday’s third-quarter growth data showed US inflation pressures continuing to fade even as consumer spending remained robust – conditions closely resembling those the Federal Reserve has been working to engineer. After dropping almost ten basis points, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.86 percent, and most major currencies are strengthening against an incrementally weaker dollar. Equity futures are gaining ahead of the North American open on solid earnings guidance from Amazon and Intel, and oil prices are higher after the US launched “precision self-defense” strikes against two Iran-linked facilities...

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26 Oct 2023

Price action slows into US growth data and European rate decision

The dollar is rising ahead of data that is likely to show the American economy expanding at a remarkably-aggressive pace in the third quarter, defying widespread expectations for a slowdown. Consensus estimates suggest this morning’s data will show output growing 4.7 percent in the third quarter, but the “whisper” number is considerably higher, nearing the 5 percent mark, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” model is pointing to a 5.4-percent expansion. Anything in this range would serve to highlight the yawning performance gap between the US and its major counterparts, and would mark the latest in a long line of...

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25 Oct 2023

Minding the gap, traders buy the dollar

The dollar remains firm and Treasury yields are ticking higher after yesterday’s sentiment survey data highlighted a yawning performance gap between the American economy and its global counterparts. A series of purchasing manager indices released by S&P Global showed the US as the only major economy remaining in expansionary territory in early October, with composite measures for the euro area, UK, and Japan pointing to further contraction. We’re not sure the dollar will be acting as the only port in the storm for long. Under-the-hood details suggest inflation pressures are now running at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target,...

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24 Oct 2023

Treasury Bill jawboning triggers tumble

Global interest rate benchmarks and the US dollar are sharply lower after a remarkably-turbulent short-covering rally saw the ten-year Treasury yield fall from above 5 percent to 4.84 percent during yesterday’s session. We hesitate to ascribe price action to investors talking their books, but the move appeared to kick off when Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman said he’d unwound his bet against US government bonds, and gained steam on comments from “bond king” Bill Gross, who wrote that he had begun buying short-dated interest-rate futures to harness an expected downturn by year end. Equity futures are setting up for a stronger...

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23 Oct 2023

Flashbacks to 2007 haunt markets

Ten-year Treasury yields broke through the 5-percent threshold to a 16-year high earlier this morning, increasing strain on the global financial system and driving renewed demand for the dollar. Major equity indices are sliding ahead of the North American open, oil prices are retreating, copper prices are down sharply, and most major currencies are trading on the defensive relative to the greenback as some investors take out insurance against a re-run of the global financial crisis. Three factors appear to be shaping the move higher: Last week’s comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, in which he appeared to suggest...

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