Market Brief, North America

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated last month, helping lift the likelihood of another rate hike at one of the central bank’s next two meetings, while helping put a floor under Treasury yields and the dollar. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the core consumer expenditures price index rose a faster-than-anticipated 0.4 percent in April from the month prior, up 4.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, beating market expectations for a 0.3-percent gain. Consumer spending climbed 0.5-percent and personal income inched 0.4 percent higher month-over-month, with pandemic-era savings and higher asset values continuing to fuel extraordinarily-strong levels of consumption...

Yields and the dollar continue to push higher after minutes taken during the Federal Reserve’s May meeting seemed to show policymakers questioning whether regional bank turmoil would meaningfully slow inflation. According to a record published yesterday, “Several participants noted that if the economy evolved along the lines of their current outlooks, then further policy firming after this meeting may not be necessary,” but “Some participants commented that, based on their expectations that progress in returning inflation to 2 percent could continue to be unacceptably slow, additional policy firming would likely be warranted at future meetings.”