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Market Brief, North America

Dollar weakens after Fed and ECB decisions match market expectations

The dollar is retreating for a third session, with all of its major counterparts recording gains on a Federal Reserve-driven drop in Treasury yields.  Oil prices are recovering after experiencing something resembling a flash crash around the Asia open last night, with prices plunging more than 7 percent. The move, which seemed to lack a fundamental trigger, saw closely-correlated currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone remain relatively unmoved, but left the West Texas and Brent benchmarks down roughly 15 percent year to date. The market has been hammered by a weakening demand outlook even as the OPEC+ group of...

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Hopes for Fed pause kick dollar lower

Equity futures are climbing, Treasury yields are coming down, and the dollar is pushing lower as investors position ahead of what many expect will become the Federal Reserve’s last rate hike in this tightening cycle. Risk appetite remains diminished after yesterday’s session brought a decline in job openings, a softening in durable goods orders, and evidence of worsening stress in the regional US banking sector – but expectations for more accommodative policy settings later this year are helping support narrowly-held gains across a number of asset classes.  Rowing against the overall dollar-negative tide, the Australian dollar is gradually giving back some...

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Markets Lick Wounds After Bank-Related Selloff

With First Republic Bank shares recovering ground even as a rescue looks increasingly plausible, regional lender indices are climbing, and yesterday’s slow-motion flight to safety is unwinding across the financial markets. With renewed troubles in the banking sector seen reducing the Federal Reserve’s room for manoeuvre, yields are under pressure across the front end of the curve, and the dollar is falling back after posting its biggest daily gain since early March. The pound and euro are steamrolling higher on improved rate differentials, while the credit condition-sensitive Canadian dollar is struggling to lift itself off the mat after yesterday’s bruising defeat....

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Dollar Advances Amid Renewed Banking Worries

Renewed concerns over the health of the global banking sector are driving investors toward safe havens this morning, lifting the dollar against its major counterparts. North American equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, Treasury yields are down, and currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars are underperforming relative to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Financial sector stocks began to weaken last night after First Republic Bank said it had lost more than $100 billion in deposits during the first quarter, forcing it to cut staff and reduce lending activity. Selling continued in the European session when UBS and...

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Hot UK Inflation Lifts Global Yields, Leaves Currencies Largely Unmoved

Famous last words perhaps, but today is shaping up to be a quiet one in currency markets. Treasury yields and the trade-weighted dollar are inching higher after a hotter-than-expected British inflation print put upward pressure on global interest rates and pushed equity and commodity futures into a defensive posture – but trading ranges remain unspectacular relative to recent months. The British pound jumped this morning after the latest inflation numbers topped expectations, making a rate increase at the next Bank of England meeting far more likely. According to data released by the Office for National Statistics, consumer prices climbed 10.1 percent in...

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