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Market Brief, North America

Trading Ranges Shrink Ahead of US Inflation Data

Price action is slowing and the dollar is holding steady against its counterparts in the foreign exchange markets as investors brace for the biggest US consumer price index print since… well, since the last one. Economists surveyed by the major data providers expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report a 0.3-percent rise in both headline and core price measures for the month of March – a result which would indicate that January and February’s hotter-than-expected prints were temporary aberrations in a longer-term cooling process. Some risk has likely been taken off the table: Equity indices and risk-sensitive currencies swooned...

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Dollar Pushes Higher Ahead of Economically-Eventful Week

The dollar is trading with a firmer bias ahead of a week filled with first-tier economic events, and after Friday’s forecast-crushing US jobs number triggered a pop in Treasury yields. Both the pound and euro are starting the week on the back foot, weakened by expectations of earlier rate cuts from the Bank of England and European Central Bank, while the Japanese yen remains hemmed in by short sellers on one side and the threat of intervention on the other. Global oil benchmarks are losing altitude after Israel said it would withdraw some troops from Gaza, reducing perceived geopolitical risk...

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Markets Lick Wounds After Sharp Selloff

Markets are struggling to regain their footing after a rise in geopolitical tensions triggered a classic flight to safety. Equities and risk-sensitive currencies tumbled yesterday afternoon as investors sought refuge in bonds, the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and dollar. Benchmark crude prices jumped to the highest levels since October after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at a meeting of the security cabinet soon after a phone call with US President Joe Biden, said “Iran has been acting against us for years, directly and via proxies. And, therefore, Israel acts against Iran and its proxies, defensively and offensively… We will...

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Sentiment Improves On Stabilising Rate Expectations

Risk appetite is improving this morning after yesterday’s softer-than-expected price data and relatively dovish comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell helped ratify expectations for rate cuts in the remainder of the year. Ten year yields are holding near 4.35 percent, the greenback is on the defensive, and the euro and pound are advancing ahead of the North American equity market open. Treasury yields slipped and the dollar suffered its biggest drop in a month when the Institute for Supply Management’s services index dropped to 51.4 from 52.6 in February, with the “prices paid’ sub index falling to the lowest...

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Markets Cut Risk Into Holiday Weekend

Trading ranges are tight and liquidity levels are low across financial markets this morning as participants square positions into what could be an eventful holiday weekend. Short-term Treasury yields are inching higher, oil prices are up slightly, and equity futures are edging into a softer session ahead of tomorrow’s US personal consumption expenditures print – which will land amid a Good Friday market closure. Jerome Powell is also scheduled to participate in a discussion at the San Francisco Federal Reserve’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy conference at 11:30 tomorrow morning, raising the risk of dramatic moves when markets reopen next week...

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