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Market Brief, North America

27 Jul 2023

Dollar pushes higher on US exceptionalism in growth and rates

The euro is weakening against the dollar after the European Central Bank executed an (arguably) dovish rate hike and updated numbers showed the US economy growing more quickly than expected in the second quarter. High-beta currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars and the Mexican peso are up, while other risk proxies – like the VIX equity “fear index” and the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) bond market measure – are trending down as markets buy into a “Goldilocks” scenario for the economy, with growth remaining relatively robust even as inflation pressures subside.   North America The US economy expanded...

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26 Jul 2023

Price action slows ahead of Fed decision

Markets are looking essentially directionless as traders batten the hatches ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve decision. The dollar is seeing some selling, but is holding near a two-week trade-weighted high against high-beta currencies and the euro, equity futures are mixed, and Treasuries are broadly flat.    North America Today’s biggest macroeconomic event will occur around 1:30 this afternoon, when the Bank of Canada is scheduled to release a summary of deliberations from its early July meeting. I kid: most market participants (including myself) will likely be too busy shotgunning espresso ahead of the Fed decision to pay it much heed – and Governor...

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24 Jul 2023

Euro tumbles on weaker private-sector outlook, rate differentials tilt back toward the dollar

It won’t have the self-aware irony of Oppenheimer or the apocalyptic scenes of the Barbie movie, but the week ahead should provide plenty of entertainment for currency market participants. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are each expected to raise rates by a quarter point and the Bank of Japan is seen holding pat, but markets could move dramatically if policymakers deliver consensus-busting guidance on their future intentions. The dollar is building on last week’s gains relative to its biggest rivals after a raft of European purchasing manager indices provided clear evidence of a profound slowdown, and global yields are coming...

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19 Jul 2023

Dollar climbs against rivals as rest-of-world rate expectations fall

As another trading day dawns, markets look ever more optimistic that the worst is behind the economy, in both growth and inflation terms. Global equity indices are up and government bond yields are down after the UK reported a sharp decline in inflation pressures, measures of expected volatility are plumbing post-pandemic lows, and the dollar is gaining against most of its peers as rate differentials tilt back in its favour. Inflation fell more quickly than expected in the UK last month, easing pressure on the Bank of England and helping take some air out of the pound. Numbers released by the Office...

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18 Jul 2023

North American data prints bolster soft landing hopes

US retail spending rose by less than expected last month, but underlying consumer demand remained strong, bolstering “soft landing” hopes in financial markets. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in June, missing market forecasts for a 0.5 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell 1.4 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 0.3 percent gain. Receipts in the food and beverage category fell -0.7 percent, and restaurant sales gained just 0.1 percent. Sales at general merchandise stores inched -0.1 percent...

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