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Market Brief, North America

Markets Stabilise Even As Economic Pessimism Grows

Markets are finding a firmer footing this morning after intensifying worries about the US economy’s trajectory weakened the dollar and drove yields and equity bourses lower in yesterday’s session. Today’s data calendar looks relatively quiet, but this afternoon’s Nvidia’s earnings release could move markets, and political developments will continue to occupy centre stage. A widely-watched measure of consumer confidence dropped at the fastest monthly rate since August 2021 earlier this month, suggesting that uncertainty about the Trump administration’s policies is contributing to a rising sense of alarm among Americans. Data released yesterday morning showed the Conference Board’s confidence index sliding...

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New Tariff Threats Add to Unease

The US dollar is up only slightly against its peers this morning after Donald Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico are “going forward on time, on schedule”. Speaking with reporters after yesterday afternoon’s meeting with French president Emmanuel Macron, Trump claimed the United States had been “led, in some cases, by fools,” saying “I look at some of these [trade] agreements, I’d read them at night and I’d say, ’Who would ever sign a thing like this?’ So the tariffs will go forward, yes, and we’re going to make up a lot of territory… Our country will be extremely...

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Euro Rises As Moderates Win German Election

The euro is trading with a supportive bias after a centre-right party emerged victorious in Germany’s federal election, avoiding a lurch into extremist territory and paving the way for business-friendly economic reforms. The Christian Democrats led by Friedrich Merz are believed to have won 28.5 percent of the vote against the far-right Alternative for Germany’s 20.8 percent, 16.4 percent for the centre-left Social Democrats, 11.6 percent for the Greens, and 8.8 percent for The Left. The government could find it difficult to enact broad-reaching defence and fiscal policy changes—given that parties on the extreme left and right have enough votes...

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Consumer Worries Drag Dollar Lower

Financial markets are turning more sceptical on the outlook for the US consumer and corporate sector this morning, forcing the dollar into a renewed retreat. Equity futures are pushing lower in response to weaker-than-expected guidance from consumer-spending bellwether Walmart, and after reports suggesting that new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had ordered the Pentagon to cut 8 percent from its budget in each of the next five years hammered military-adjacent stocks. Treasury yields are edging lower, with the ten-year holding just above 4.5 percent, and currencies like the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, euro, and Japanese yen are advancing amid thin trading...

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Price Action Eases As Data Deluge Slows

Price action in financial markets looks remarkably muted this morning as shell-shocked investors stay sidelined against a quiet data backdrop. The dollar is inching higher amid thin trading volumes, most major pairs are within 0.2 percentage points of yesterday’s close, the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is less than a basis point higher, and North American equity markets are setting up for a modestly-positive open. Currency traders yawned when Donald Trump issued a new round of tariff threats last night, this time promising to hit automotive imports, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors with taxes “in the neighbourhood” of 25 percent. “It’ll go very...

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