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Market Brief, North America

04 Feb 2025

Regularly-Scheduled Programming Resumes

A sense of normalcy is returning to financial markets this morning after Donald Trump backed off threats against Canada and Mexico, granting the countries a 30-day reprieve from his proposed 25-percent tariffs. The dollar is retreating amid sluggish price action in currency markets, ten-year yields are down as inflation expectations recede, and equity markets are setting up for a soft open. Measures of implied volatility are coming off their highs, but remain elevated relative to recent history. The stay of execution was achieved after leaders in each country agreed to bolster border security in telephone calls with Trump. Bafflingly, the...

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03 Feb 2025

Trade Shock Roils Global Markets

The dollar is climbing, yields are rising and equity markets are setting up for sharp losses at the open after US President Donald Trump fired the opening salvo in what could quickly devolve into a global trade war. The administration said Saturday it will levy 25 percent import taxes on goods from Canada and Mexico—with Canadian “energy resources” subjected to a lower 10 percent levy—along with an extra 10 percent tariff on imports from China. If implemented immediately and sustained, this would represent the biggest increase in duties since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930—often blamed for deepening the Great...

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01 Feb 2025

Trump Imposes Sweeping Tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Threatening to Ignite Global Trade War

Ending—and beginning—weeks of speculation, President Donald Trump has delivered details of his tariff plan to officials in Ottawa and Mexico City, raising taxes on most imports from Canada and Mexico to 25 percent, in a move that is likely to generate upheaval in the world’s largest integrated trading area and trigger another round of disruption in foreign exchange markets. According to major Canadian news networks*, the president intends to authorise the implementation, as of Tuesday, of 25-percent tariffs on virtually all goods imports, alongside a 10 percent levy on Canadian oil and gas products. If deployed immediately, the increase would...

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31 Jan 2025

Tariff Threats Offset Signs of Improving Fundamentals

The US dollar looks set to close out the week with its strongest performance since the middle of November after President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico by tomorrow. The loonie and peso are both down more than a full percentage point on the week, North American equity indices are setting up for a subdued open, Treasury yields are pushing higher, and high-beta currencies remain on the defensive. Inflation pressures in the US remained stable at the end of last year. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core...

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30 Jan 2025

Currencies Stabilise As Threats (Seemingly) Subside

Currency markets are steadying this morning after several central bank decisions passed without triggering undue volatility, and President Donald Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary suggested that tariffs might not be implemented against Canada and Mexico. In comments during a confirmation hearing yesterday, Howard Lutnick* noted the import taxes were designed to force “action from Mexico and action from Canada,” and said “As far as I know, they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff. And if they don’t, then there will be”. The US economy expanded as expected in the fourth quarter of last...

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