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Market Brief, North America

25 Mar 2024

Liquidity Ebbs Into Holiday-Shortened Week

The trade-weighted dollar is holding steady and equity futures are poised to open lower as market participants prepare for a lower-intensity, holiday-thinned trading week. Treasury yields are ticking higher, oil prices are up modestly, and risk-sensitive units like the Canadian dollar are trading sideways ahead of a week dominated by the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator – when North American markets will be closed for Good Friday. Thin liquidity could boost the appeal of safe haven currencies in the days ahead, but some mean reversion could play out over a longer time horizon. With the global economy...

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22 Mar 2024

Dollar Strikes Back

Defying market expectations yet again, the greenback is trampling everything in its path as it heads toward a second week of gains. With global central banks on a synchronous easing trajectory, turbulence in China weighing on currencies across Asia, and US equity markets marching to new highs, rate differentials and global capital flows remain clearly dollar-supportive. Mexico’s peso is retracing some of its earlier losses, but remains weaker after the Banco de Mexico delivered a widely expected rate cut, and said it would take a data-dependent approach to future decisions. Voting by a 4-to-1 margin, policymakers yesterday opted to lower...

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21 Mar 2024

Central Bankers Turn Dovish, Markets Rally

Financial markets are in an ebullient mood after Federal Reserve officials said they still expect to cut rates three times this year, with disinflationary forces expected to resume in coming months. All three major North American equity indices closed at record highs and risk appetites roared back yesterday when Chair Powell avoided pushing back on easier financial conditions, and said recent price readings “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward two percent. I don’t think that story has changed”. Markets tend to focus on the shark closest...

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19 Mar 2024

When Carry Met Rally

We’ll have what they’re having. North American equity futures are setting up for a solid open after Nvidia Corp. unveiled a significantly faster artificial intelligence processor, Treasury yields are stable on hopes the Federal Reserve will leave its dovish forward guidance intact in tomorrow’s decision, and risk appetite is improving in currency markets as conditions for the global carry trade remain supportive. The Bank of Japan ended a decades-long experiment with unconventional monetary policy last night, and markets shrugged. Policymakers voted by a 7-2 margin to lift the key target for short-term rates to a range of 0-to-0.1 percent, stop...

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18 Mar 2024

March Madness Begins

Well, madness for economics nerds anyway. Equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady near the 4.3 percent mark, and most major currency pairs are range-bound ahead of a week in which central banks in Australia, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States will deliver rate decisions. Tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan could raise rates into positive territory for the first time since 2007. A significant share of market participants expect policymakers to lift the overnight and uncollateralized call rates by 10 basis points and end the yield...

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