Market Brief, North America

Investors are kicking off the penultimate markets week of 2023 in a cautiously-optimistic fashion. Equity futures are pointing up, Treasury yields are incrementally higher, and the dollar is moving sideways amid mixed trading conditions. The Japanese yen is the only big mover on currency markets, trading with a decidedly-weaker bias this morning after a media report suggested a big policy change was unlikely to come at next week’s meeting. Citing “people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg said officials weren’t yet seeing the evidence of the sustained rise in wage growth needed to generate higher inflation over the long run. According...

Traders are keeping powder dry ahead of this morning’s critical non-farm payrolls report. Equity futures are flat-lining, Treasury yields are holding near three-month lows, and all of the major currency pairs are caught within tight ranges. Consensus forecasts collected by Bloomberg and Reuters suggest the US added roughly 190,000 jobs in November – down from 150,000 in the prior month – but a growing sense of economic pessimism has likely left markets positioning for a softer print. The unemployment rate could rise to 4.0 percent, but on a three-month averaged basis is likely to remain below the level needed to...

Japan’s yen is on a tear as markets go all-in on bets the central bank is poised to lift rates out of negative territory. The currency leapt more than 1.8 percent last night when Bank of Japan Governor Ueda told Parliament monetary policy decisions could “become even more challenging from year end and heading into next year,” adding fuel to speculation that began a day earlier when Deputy Governor Himini argued that positive interest rates could prove economically-beneficial. We consider Himini’s comments extremely meaningful—they mark a significant change in Bank orthodoxy and should be read as preparing the ground for...