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Market Brief, North America

06 May 2024

Dollar Momentum Fades As Rate Cuts Return

The dollar is beginning the new week on a defensive footing after Friday’s non-farm payrolls print helped resuscitate hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields are flat, North American equity bourses are pointing to a supportive open, and currency markets are seeing a second day of broad-based risk-taking. The April jobs report showed labour market conditions easing, but remaining extremely tight. Employers added 175,000 positions, down from an upwardly-revised 315,000-job print in the prior month. The unemployment rate rose an almost indiscernible 0.03 percent, climbing from 3.83 to 3.86 percent, and marking the 27th consecutive month below...

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03 May 2024

Risk Appetite Improves as US Payrolls Report Looms

The US dollar is cruising into a third day of losses and Treasury yields are softening even as investors brace for what is expected to be another strong payrolls report. North American equity futures are rallying ahead of the open after Apple reported stronger-than-expected earnings and provided a more optimistic sales forecast, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar are advancing off very low levels. Economist estimates going into this morning’s non-farm payrolls number are widely dispersed, ranging from a 150,000-position gain on the low end to 280,000 on the high end, with the median landing near the 240,000 mark....

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01 May 2024

Fed Signals Concern Over Stubborn Inflation

As expected, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high for a sixth consecutive meeting, and signalled a desire to wait for more data before beginning an easing cycle. In the statement setting out its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee outlined its deepening concern over the pace of disinflation in the US economy, saying “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the committee’s 2-percent inflation objective”, removing a previous reference to inflation that had “eased” over the past year. Risks to accomplishing both sides of the central bank’s...

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01 May 2024

Soaring US Yields Set Stage for Fed’s ‘Hawkish Hold’

The dollar is trading near a five-month high after data showed US wage growth accelerating, further reducing market odds on rate cuts this year. Yesterday’s update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of wage growth saw the Employment Cost Index accelerate to the fastest pace in a year, adding to last week’s inflation data in forcing markets to question whether the central bank will be able to lower interest rates from what it currently sees as restrictive levels. Two-year Treasury yields are holding above the 5 percent threshold and traders are now pricing in just a single rate cut in...

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30 Apr 2024

Fed Fears Dampen Market Enthusiasm

Traders are moving onto a more cautious footing today as the prospect of a ‘hawkish hold’ at tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting comes into view. The dollar is trading on a modestly weaker footing against the yen and euro, but is maintaining strength relative to most other majors as interest rate differentials continue to provide lift. The Canadian dollar is softening ahead of a much-awaited gross domestic product report. Yields were left unmoved yesterday afternoon after the Treasury said it would borrow more than expected over the coming quarter. According to its updated quarterly refunding plans, the federal government will issue...

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