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Market Brief, North America

Hawkish Kashkari Comments Pour Cold Water on Markets

The dollar is advancing, yields are higher, and equity futures are in retreat as more overt hawkishness from a Fed official weighs on global risk sentiment. Markets tumbled yesterday morning when Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari – doing his best to become the new Jim Bullard – suggested that further rate hikes remained a possibility. Speaking at a monetary policy forum in London, Kashkari said “the odds of us raising rates are quite low,” but “we could stay on hold for an indefinite period of time, and “I don’t think anyone has totally taken rate increases off the table”. Kashkari’s...

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Market Momentum Fades After US Long Weekend

The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are essentially unchanged, and equity futures are edging higher as US market participants return from the Memorial Day long weekend. Both the pound and euro are trading near the tops of their respective trading ranges as economic growth prospects brighten and expected yield trajectories edge higher. A series of data releases over the last month have provided evidence of a bottoming in both economies, with last week’s purchasing manager indices delivering the clearest view yet into the improvement in sentiment that could underpin growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. The European Central...

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Dollar Cruises Toward Weekly Gain on Fading Easing Expectations

With a long weekend ahead, the dollar looks set to consolidate its biggest weekly advance since early April as markets capitulate in the face of hotter-than-expected US growth data and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The greenback is down slightly in early trade against all of its major counterparts – other than the yen – but remains roughly half a percent stronger on the week, two-year Treasury yields are up a little more than 2 percent, and equity futures are steadily giving back Wednesday’s gains ahead of the North American open. Defying our expectations, the US economic activity accelerated in...

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Nvidia Earnings Offset Fed Losses in Currency Markets

The US dollar is edging lower as risk appetite recovers from a surprisingly-hawkish set of Fed minutes. The greenback surged yesterday afternoon after a record of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed officials expressing doubts over whether interest rates were tight enough to bring inflation down to target, weighing on rate cut expectations across the front of the curve. According to the minutes, although policymakers generally thought the central bank was “well positioned,” there were “many” who felt “uncertainty about the degree of restrictiveness” being imposed on the economy. “Various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks...

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Hawkish Fedspeak Forces Modest Market Retreat

Traders are staying in their foxholes this morning after a flock of Fed officials delivered a remarkably unified message on rate cuts, warning markets not to expect easing to begin for many months yet. Speaking at the Peterson Institute in Washington yesterday, Governor Waller counselled patience, saying “In the absence of a significant weakening in the labour market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would feel comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy”. At a separate event, Cleveland’s Loretta Mester said “I need to see a few more months of...

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