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Market Brief, North America

05 Jun 2024

Rate Cut Bets Resurface As Economy Slows

With the US economy showing more signs of exhaustion, traders are tiptoeing back into bets on policy easing from the Federal Reserve before year end. Treasury yields – which have provided the fuel for the dollar’s recent outperformance – are climbing off a two-day low, equity futures are advancing as odds on two rate cuts in 2024 creep higher, and the greenback itself is little changed. US job markets cooled further last month. According to yesterday’s Job Openings and Labour Turnover survey, the number of open roles in the US fell from a revised 8.355 million to 8.059 million in...

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04 Jun 2024

US Slowdown Concerns Weigh on Risk Appetite

The dollar is steadying, Treasury yields are moving sideways, and equity futures are down after Monday’s session brought new evidence of the growing headwinds facing the US economy – raising hopes for earlier policy easing from the Federal Reserve while also challenging earnings expectations. Yesterday’s Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey proved disappointing. The factory sector remained in negative territory, with the headline index unexpectedly declining to 48.7, down from 49.2 in the prior month, and well below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Most worrisomely, the new orders sub-index fell below inventories, suggesting that businesses could slow...

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03 Jun 2024

Currency Markets Retreat as Peso Plunges

Markets are on edge ahead of a week littered with event risks. The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are down as traders brace for politically-driven volatility in the Mexican peso, decisions from the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank, and a series of first-tier data releases in the United States, culminating in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The peso is coming down hard as preliminary results show Claudia Sheinbaum, current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s designated successor, on course to win a landslide victory that could give her party the votes needed to remove checks and balances in the...

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31 May 2024

Slowing US Economy Contributes to Downbeat Mood

Bad news is bad news again. Stock markets, Treasury yields, and the dollar all declined yesterday when revised data showed the US economy expanding by less than initially estimated in the first quarter. Gross domestic product rose at a 1.3 annualised rate in the first three months of the year, sharply lower than the 1.6 percent originally calculated, and much slower than than the 3.4-percent pace hit in the last quarter of 2023. An inflation measure was also revised down to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent, and household spending, a critical driver of overall growth, was marked down to 2...

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30 May 2024

Market Retreat Continues as Yields Climb

Worries about a higher-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve are intersecting with extraordinarily-elevated levels of government bond issuance to drive yields higher, bolstering the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. With ten-year yields climbing across the developed economies, but moving even faster in the United States, the greenback is trading near a two-week peak, and investors are rebalancing away from equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies. After a series of stronger-than-expected data releases and hawkish comments from Fed officials, markets are struggling to choke down heavy volumes of bond supply. In comments yesterday, the Atlanta Fed’s relatively-centrist President Raphael Bostic said “My outlook is...

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