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Market Brief, North America

28 Apr 2025

Tariff uncertainty lingers

• He said, Xi Said. Confusion about whether US/China are in tariff talks. US equities consolidated overnight, while US yields & USD lost ground.• AUD rebound. AUD bounced back strongly the past few weeks. At ~$0.6430 it is near levels last traded in early-December. AU Q1 CPI due tomorrow.• Event Radar. In addition to AU CPI, BoJ meets this week, China PMIs are out, as is US GDP & the US jobs report. More tariff headlines also likely. Global Trends Tariff related headlines have seen sentiment wax and wane at the start of the week, particularly with limited economic data...

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28 Apr 2025

Uneasy Calm Prevails Ahead of Action-Packed Week

Financial markets are trading sideways ahead of an information-dense trading week that will be packed with economic data releases and earnings reports – on top of the usual White House drama. The dollar is up incrementally against its major peers on hopes for a raft of symbolic trade deals, Treasury yields are holding steady, and futures on North American equity markets are edging marginally lower as investors brace for a deluge of negative guidance from US corporates;. Former central banker Mark Carney is well ahead in the polls going into today’s Canadian election, with many voters seeing him as the...

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25 Apr 2025

Dollar Strengthens On Milder Risk Backdrop

Risk appetite is returning to global financial markets this morning as investors move to price in rate cuts and traders welcome a more conciliatory tone from the Trump administration on trade and monetary independence issues. The president and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both made supportive noises on trade negotiations during yesterday’s session, and a number of Federal Reserve officials highlighted downside risks in public appearances. North American stock market futures are setting up for a modestly-lower open, but the US ten-year Treasury yield is pushing lower, and the dollar is strengthening against its safe-haven alternatives in Japan, Switzerland, and the...

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24 Apr 2025

Recovery Falters As Trade War Ceasefire Hopes Are Dashed

A nascent relief rally in markets is stalling out as hopes for a thaw in the US-China trade war unravel amid contradictory signals from officials. The dollar is coming under selling pressure once again, Treasury yields are inching lower, and equity futures are cruising toward renewed losses at the North American open. Risk appetite improved enormously yesterday morning when the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was planning to reduce tariffs on China by roughly half — from 145 percent to somewhere between 50 and 65 percent — dovetailing with the president’s somewhat-conciliatory comments on Tuesday evening, when...

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23 Apr 2025

Relief Washes Over Markets As US Dials Down Rhetoric

The dollar is strengthening, yields are edging lower, and North American equity markets are barrelling toward a second day of gains after the Trump administration appeared to soften its stance on several policy fronts. Risk sentiment improved early in yesterday’s session on signs that the administration intends to retreat from its maximalist positions on China. In a closed-door meeting with investors, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said “No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable at 145 and 125 percent” tariffs, “So, I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation. And I think...

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