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Market Brief, North America

Equity Unwind Sparks Risk Retreat

Risk-sensitive currencies are staging a broad retreat as losses in stock markets continue. North American equity futures are pointing to a lower open after suffering the biggest selloff in two years during yesterday’s session, with a series of earnings misses intersecting with broader economic dynamics to trigger a headlong rush out of “megacap” names that have been the prime beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence craze. Safe-haven currencies are appreciating, front-end Treasury yields are inching lower, oil prices are down, and the broader commodity complex is coming under renewed selling pressure. The proximate trigger for the selloff isn’t entirely obvious, but...

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Earnings Season Drives Currency Markets

Foreign exchange rates are looking relatively stable this morning, with modest price action largely dictated by events in stock markets. Equity futures are down – putting some pressure on risk-sensitive currency pairs and raising the dollar’s safe-haven value – after Tesla, LVMH and Deutsche Bank reported disappointing earnings. Treasury yields are inching lower, but remain elevated on the back end as investors brace for continued fiscal expansion under either of the current front-runners for US president. The euro is trading near a two-week low after private sector activity decelerated more than expected in early July, suggesting that an early-year economic...

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Volatility Ratchets Higher as Global System Outage Hits Markets

A flight to safety in currency markets is slowly unwinding this morning, but jitters remain as traders gain a better understanding of how a worldwide software outage is impacting the global financial system. Airlines, telecommunications firms, banks, and stock exchanges are suffering service disruptions after an update from the CrowdStrike cybersecurity firm reportedly took down systems running Microsoft’s Windows operating system, but price action in the foreign exchange pairs we track remains consistent with typical liquidity conditions, suggesting that market participants are finding ways to transact. The technological tumult comes after days of strange weather in financial markets, with shifts...

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ECB Holds, Signals Patience on Rate Cuts

Global currency markets are stabilising and the euro remains essentially unmoved after the European Central Bank left its main policy settings unchanged while avoiding telegraphing a move in September. In a mostly unmodified statement, officials said “domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above target well into next year,” while acknowledging that most measures of underlying price pressures “were either stable or edged down in June”. Potentially foreshadowing comments from President Lagarde during the press conference, policymakers inserted a sentence warning market participants against inferring signals about the future direction...

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Trump Comments Weigh on Dollar

The dollar is beating a swift retreat this morning after Bloomberg Businessweek published a late-June interview in which Donald Trump took aim at overvaluation in the currency, suggesting that he might take policy actions to depress it against the yuan and yen. The renminbi is inching higher, but the Japanese yen is up more than a full percentage point against the greenback, and most other majors are strengthening in relative terms. This comes after yesterday’s June retail sales report provided another reminder of the golden rule in global economics: never, ever bet against the American consumer. So-called “control group” receipts...

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