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Market Brief, North America

18 Dec 2024

Markets Brace for Fed’s “Hawkish Cut”

Financial markets are treading water this morning ahead of the year’s last Federal Reserve decision. US Treasury yields and the dollar are holding in narrow trading ranges, equity markets are pushing higher, and commodity prices are moving sideways. Market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting the Fed to deliver a “hawkish cut” this afternoon. After a series of data releases showing labour markets losing momentum and inflation holding steady, policymakers are widely believed likely to lower the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 4.25-4.50 percent – but the “dot plot” summary of economic projections is seen signalling...

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17 Dec 2024

US Retail Sales Firm, Canadian Inflation Decelerates

US retail spending climbed slightly more than expected last month, suggesting that resilient consumer demand could continue to power economic outperformance through the all-important holiday season. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in November, beating the 0.6-percent consensus forecasts, and up from a revised 0.5 percent in October. So-called “control group” retail sales sales – with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded – rose by a softer 0.4 percent, matching estimates. The dollar is holding firm, ten-year Treasury...

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16 Dec 2024

Currency Traders Brace for Tumultuous Week

Foreign exchange markets are looking deeply rangebound this morning as 2024’s last full trading week kicks off. Most major currencies are trading within a quarter percentage point of Friday’s close, Treasury yields are stable, and North American equity markets are setting up for modest losses at the open. The euro is trading on a slightly softer footing after Moody’s Ratings cut France’s credit rating, warning that growing political dysfunction could endanger the country’s borrowing capacity. According to a statement released by the agency on Friday, “the country’s public finances will be substantially weakened over the coming years. This is because...

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12 Dec 2024

ECB Cuts, US Price Pressures Rise, Dollar Holds Steady

Currency markets are seeing a modest mean-reversion move this morning, with the dollar holding firm against most of its major rivals. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 4.28 percent mark on evidence of strengthening inflation pressures, equity futures are setting up for incremental losses at the open, and commodity prices are generally trading sideways as optimism surrounding China’s stimulus efforts fades. The franc is trading near a two-week low – but is still near a two-decade high against the euro – after the Swiss National Bank delivered a larger-than-expected half percentage point rate cut in this morning’s decision. With...

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11 Dec 2024

US Inflation Holds Steady, Leaving Fed Easing Bets Intact

Underlying consumer price growth held steady in the United States last month, providing more evidence of a stalling disinflation process, while also giving the Federal Reserve room to continue easing policy at next week’s meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in November from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This matched the median consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed...

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