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Market Brief, North America

Middle East Turmoil Keeps Markets In Risk-Off Mode

Fear levels are subsiding across global financial markets after Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel yesterday without inflicting large numbers of casualties or causing significant damage to infrastructure. Oil prices remain elevated, Treasuries are in demand, and the dollar is holding its gains after the attack triggered a flight to safety – but trading ranges are narrowing, and price action could easily reverse if the geopolitical escalatory cycle shows signs of slowing in the days ahead. The threat of a retaliatory attack on Iranian oil infrastructure could keep prices somewhat elevated, but the risk of a sustained...

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Currency Markets Trade Mixed as Optimism Grows

The mean-reversion process that began in foreign exchange markets this summer is continuing this morning, with the dollar trading flat and other majors reversing early-year moves. A steady drumbeat of economic stimulus announcements from China is interacting with growing bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other central banks to support global risk appetite, pouring rocket fuel into equity markets and risk-sensitive currency pairs, while driving implied volatility levels lower. Inflation in France and Spain decelerated more dramatically in September than had been expected, reinforcing market bets on more easing coming at the European Central...

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Ebullience Returns

A sense of optimism is powering financial markets forward this morning, with China promising more economic stimulus, a raft of Federal Reserve speakers likely to deliver relatively-dovish messages in the hours to come, and reports suggesting that Saudi Arabia is preparing to increase oil production. Treasuries are flat, equity futures are pointing higher ahead of the North American open, and the dollar is retreating against its major counterparts, with the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar all eking out half-percentage point gains relative to yesterday’s close. In a highly unusual September announcement, the Chinese politburo said it would mobilise “necessary fiscal...

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China-Administered Sugar Rush Fades

The greenback is holding near an eight-month low as the impact of yesterday’s Chinese stimulus announcement dissipates and an unexpectedly-extreme fall in US consumer sentiment takes a toll on risk appetite. Equity market futures are setting up for a softer open and front-end Treasury yields are pushing slightly lower, even as long-term rates continue their ascendance. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index tumbled by the most in three years in September. The headline index dropped 6.9 points to 98.7, well below economist estimates, as households reported a deterioration in current conditions and turned more pessimistic on the future. The share...

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Markets Climb on Chinese Stimulus Hopes

Risk appetite is rebounding across the currency markets after Chinese authorities unveiled a raft of stimulus measures designed to boost growth and reinvigorate market sentiment. In a carefully-choreographed announcement, the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate and lowered the amount of cash that banks need to hold in reserve by 50 basis points, freeing up money for lending. It said it would also cut the interest rate payable on existing mortgages and lower down payments on purchases of second homes. And lending facilities equivalent to almost $70 billion dollars will be made available to brokers...

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