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Market Brief, North America

02 Dec 2024

Dollar Rallies Back, Euro Tumbles

The ‘US exceptionalism’ theme is back to driving markets this morning, helping the dollar snap a three-day losing streak against most of its rivals. The euro is coming under pressure as the French government struggles to pass a budget, the Swiss franc is advancing amid stronger safe-haven flows, and major high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – are all off around half a percentage point. The dollar’s outperformance this year can be seen clearly in the chart below, which shows trade-weighted values through November 27. After softening in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, the currency...

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29 Nov 2024

Dollar Softens, Canadian Growth Remains Lacklustre

Amid turbulent month-end flows and a serious tryptophan hangover, the dollar is retreating and volatility expectations are falling as investors bet that Donald Trump’s trade bite won’t match his bark. The greenback looks headed toward its biggest weekly loss in three months after several relatively-moderate cabinet picks – most notably Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary – helped assuage market fears of a more extremist policy mix in the president’s second term, lowering long-term yields and reducing the risk discount embedded in other major currencies. Equity futures are pointing toward further gains in today’s holiday-shortened session, the ten-year Treasury yield is...

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27 Nov 2024

Markets Consolidate Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors consider the implications of Donald Trump’s latest cabinet picks and position ahead of this morning’s inflation update. The dollar is inching lower amid month-end flows, Treasury yields are down, equity futures are slipping, and oil prices are weakening after Israel and Hezbollah reached a cease-fire agreement late yesterday, reducing the likelihood of a widening conflict that could pull in other regional powers. Unease over the extent to which protectionist policies might be deployed by the US remains elevated after the president-elect tapped Robert Lighthizer’s former chief of staff to lead trade...

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26 Nov 2024

‘Tariff Man’s’ Return Rocks Currency Markets

Donald Trump’s threat to raise consumption taxes on a range of goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China is still sending shockwaves across currency markets. The dollar is up roughly a percentage point against its North American and European counterparts after the president last night said he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on all imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10 percent on Chinese goods, accusing the countries of allowing illegal migrants and drug traffickers into the US. In a break with long-standing Republican orthodoxy – most clearly under Ronald Reagan – this would raise trade...

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25 Nov 2024

Bessent-Driven Relief Rally Boosts Currency Markets

Financial markets are heaving a sigh of relief after president-elect Donald Trump picked Scott Bessent – a relative moderate and someone with a firm grasp of macroeconomics – to lead the Treasury Department. The hedge fund manager and Soros Fund alumni is seen as someone who might steer the incoming administration’s fiscal and trade policies in a more pragmatic direction, reducing the negative effects of an “America First” approach on other economies. The benchmark ten year Treasury yield is down six basis points from Friday’s close, equity futures are setting up for a strong open, and the dollar is down...

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