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Market Brief, North America

Markets Hunker Down As Event Risk Minefield Looms

De-risking activities are dominating trading activity in financial markets this morning as participants brace for what could be the most momentous fortnight of the year. Treasury yields are climbing once again, with the ten-year now yielding 4.25 percent, the dollar is advancing against its major peers, and trade-sensitive currencies – like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso – are flirting with year-to-date lows. Crude prices are down sharply after Israeli aircraft struck military targets in Iran over the weekend, avoiding any obvious harm to the country’s energy infrastructure and giving Tehran room to avoid another round of escalation. Implied volatility...

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Mean Reversion Kicks In, Forcing Dollar Retreat

Treasury yields are slipping for a second day as an early-week barfing episode gets washed out of markets, the dollar is retreating, and rival currencies are edging higher ahead of the North American equity open. Orders for durable goods fell by more than expected last month, but changes in aircraft orders obscured a relatively-positive read on underlying fundamentals. On a headline basis, new orders for goods meant to last more than three years fell -0.8 percent in the United States in September, but core capital goods – which exclude aircraft and defence products – climbed 0.5 percent, building on August’s...

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Dollar’s Relentless Advance Continues

Demand for the dollar keeps climbing. With less than two weeks to go before the next Federal Reserve meeting and the US presidential election, global investors are piling into the greenback, cutting wagers on an aggressive easing cycle, and betting that the next administration’s policy mix will inflict serious damage on other major economies while generating higher levels of inflation at home. The DXY dollar index is up almost 4 percent from its late September low, options markets are pointing to a growing appetite for hedges against extreme moves around the polling date, and currencies that have strong trade links...

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Bond Turbulence Roils Currency Markets

Bond markets continue to puke like the cast of Family Guy after drinking Ipecac*. The ten-year US Treasury yield is holding above the 4.2-percent threshold this morning – up from 3.6 percent in mid-September – after a violent bond selloff during yesterday’s session, and a widely-watched measure of Treasury yield volatility – the MOVE index – is pushing higher as traders brace for more turbulence. Currency markets are reacting accordingly. The dollar is outperforming most of its major rivals, keeping the euro and pound stuck near recent lows as rate differentials tilt in America’s favour. The yield-sensitive yen is coming...

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Dollar Grinds Higher as Data Cadence Slows

The US dollar is trading with a consolidative bias this morning, advancing steadily against its major rivals ahead of this week’s thinly-populated data calendar. Treasury yields are up, North American equity futures are positioned for a healthy open, and oil prices are inching higher on a ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Markets are becoming more focused on the risks associated with the upcoming US presidential election. Option prices are beginning to ratchet up around the polling date, trade-sensitive currencies are softening, and ten-year Treasury yields are moving higher at a steady pace, with many market participants...

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