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Market Brief, North America

Markets steady as dollar upside remains capped

Good morning. Currency markets are holding steady ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures index—an update that could shape expectations for interest rates ahead of Kevin Warsh’s closely-watched Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Oil prices are edging lower, helping to ease pressure on long-term yields, after Iran and Oman said they were discussing opening a “joint temporary navigational corridor” through the Strait of Hormuz—an agreement that could loosen global supply conditions and alleviate inflation pressures in energy-dependent economies. And after the bell, Nvidia’s second-quarter results will offer a read on whether...

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Currencies steady as conflicting forces keep the dollar hemmed in

Good morning. Measures of implied volatility are holding steady across financial markets, as the drumbeat of economic data slows and after the Trump administration’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran’s trading partners turned out to involve more rubber dinghies than landing craft. Treasury yields are edging lower (albeit from elevated levels), equity futures are advancing, and currency markets are firmly range-bound, with most major currencies down by less than 0.3% against the dollar since Friday’s close. Oil prices are slipping, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate down by more than 3% from yesterday. After threatening “the single greatest financial offensive...

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Dollar tries to climb off the mat

Good morning and welcome back. The US dollar is struggling to climb off a three-month low as traders digest last week’s Treasury buyback announcement and the breakdown in US-Canada trade negotiations, and await Friday’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Treasury yields are holding steady, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc are all marginally softer—but still up solidly relative to a week ago. The dollar tumbled last week when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his department would “at least” double its purchases of long-term...

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Markets brace for key payrolls report

Happy Friday. With uncertainty running high ahead of this morning’s jobs report and fresh questions emerging about the course of the conflict in the Middle East, activity across financial markets is subdued. Equity futures are pointing to small gains at the open, Treasury yields are stable, and most major foreign exchange pairs are essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close. The Japanese yen is holding steady after giving back nearly half of its post-intervention gains. Global trading floors are focused on the US payrolls report, due in under an hour—an event that should be a snoozer but might force a rethink of...

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Markets see light at the end of the Hormuz tunnel

Good morning. Markets are shifting onto a broadly positive footing after Iran said that it had reached a deal with Oman to permit shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the temporary arrangement reported yesterday, tankers would pass without charge for sixty days—though Iran is said to want an eventual toll of 5-7% of cargo value, against the 3% Oman favours. The Trump administration appears content to let this play out: stocks of key munitions are running low, and mid-term elections are looming. Brent crude is steady around $80 a barrel and Treasury yields are holding firm, while equities are...

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