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Market Brief, North America

Tame inflation weighs on the dollar

Consumer price growth accelerated by slightly less than expected in the United States last month, helping lower short-term yields and putting downward pressure on the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.2 percent in December from the prior month, and was up 2.6 percent over the same period a year prior. This narrowly missed consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month, and were up 2.7...

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‘Sell America’ trade returns, albeit in modest form

The US dollar, Treasuries, and stock market indices are all trading slightly lower this morning after the Trump administration stepped up its assault on the Federal Reserve, launching a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell’s management of a headquarters renovation project. According to a highly unusual video statement published last night, the Chair said he had received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department that threaten a criminal indictment in a case that most market participants see as part of an effort to reduce the Fed’s independence and push monetary policy into more accommodative territory. “This is about whether the...

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Fall in US unemployment rate boosts dollar

The US economy generated fewer jobs than anticipated, but the unemployment rate declined last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of monetary easing over the course of 2026. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 50,000 jobs were added in December, undershooting a consensus forecast set around the 70,000 mark, and the previous two months were revised down by 76,000 positions. On a full-year basis, the economy added an average 48,600 jobs per month, marking the worst performance outside the early-aughts dot-com collapse or a recession in the last 25 years. The unemployment rate—arguably the most...

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Mixed data supports dollar in countdown to tomorrow’s payrolls report

Happy Thursday. The dollar is extending its advance for a third session after yesterday’s data underscored the US economy’s resilience, denting bearish conviction. Most major currency pairs remain rangebound, with the pound, euro and yen all holding broadly neutral technical positions against the greenback. Treasury yields are slightly higher, while equity markets are set to open a bit lower as investors weigh the Trump administration’s latest threats to intervene in the housing and defence sectors. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report delivered more evidence of a cooling in demand for workers, but layoffs remained low and the quits...

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Markets turn data-driven

Good morning, and feel free to hit the snooze button. Financial markets are back to ignoring geopolitical headlines, with most major currency pairs exhibiting rangebound behaviour, Treasury yields flatlining, and equity futures setting up for an incremental retreat at the open. Investors are ignoring the latest threats against Greenland from the White House*, and are downplaying signs of growing friction between China and Japan—at least outside regional indices. Measures of implied volatility in foreign exchange markets are holding near cycle lows. The euro is trading on a slightly weaker footing after a bloc-wide inflation report showed price growth easing toward...

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