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Market Brief, North America

Dollar softens as policy uncertainty climbs

Equity markets are lower and the dollar is weaker against all of its major counterparts after the US cycled through four different tariff frameworks between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon, underscoring the policy uncertainty facing the world’s largest economy. After the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, he moved to replace the measures with a flat-rate 10 percent levy on all US imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which he then raised to 15 percent on Saturday. The new tariff, which is set to take effect tomorrow and...

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US economy slows, but exhibits signs of resilience, keeping dollar aloft

The American economy slowed by more than expected in the final quarter of 2025, with weaker consumer spending, trade effects, and the government shutdown combining to sap momentum. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed gross domestic product rising at a 1.4-percent annual rate in the fourth quarter after a 4.4-percent jump in the three months prior, surprising economists who had anticipated a print closer to the 3-percent mark. Household spending decelerated to a 2.4 percent pace from 3.5 percent previously, net exports flatlined as tariff front-running effects continued to offset themselves, and the government shutdown...

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Hawkish Fed minutes keep dollar well-supported

Good morning. The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts as the aftermath of yesterday’s more hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve minutes puts upward pressure on yields and weakens demand for speculative asset classes. Ten-year Treasury yields are inching higher, equity futures are setting up for modest losses ahead of the North American open, and the euro, pound, and Mexican peso are all coming under mild selling pressure even as rate curves shift upward in sympathy. Federal Reserve officials showed little inclination to ease policy at last month’s meeting, with the bulk of the rate-setting committee hoping to see further progress...

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Markets show tentative signs of recovery

Investors are bargain-hunting across the financial markets this morning, scooping up discounted assets after a multi-week selloff. Futures on North American equity markets are pointing to gains after the open, Treasury yields are inching higher, and economically-sensitive currencies are outperforming their safe-haven brethren amid a broader improvement in risk appetite. The Canadian dollar remains narrowly rangebound after yesterday’s inflation figures failed to alter expectations for the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year. After delivering an aggressive 200 basis points in easing over the last two years, the Bank has landed near what...

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Currency traders seek safe havens as turbulence continues

Good morning. Risk aversion is dominating markets as trading resumes after yesterday’s North American holiday. The dollar and safe-haven yen are extending their gains, two-year Treasury yields are sliding toward three-year lows, and equity futures are pointing to a weaker open as investors brace for a continuation of last week’s rotation away from AI-exposed businesses. Oil prices are slightly higher on reports that Iran has closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz for military exercises. Here in Canada, inflation pressures eased more than expected last month. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the headline consumer price index climbing...

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