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Market Brief, North America

Price action slows across financial markets as investors digest mixed signals

Financial markets are turning more cautious this morning as traders process the implications of an unexpectedly-divided Federal Reserve decision, news of a tentative trade truce between the US and China, and a mixed slate of earnings from the world’s largest technology firms. The dollar is maintaining yesterday’s advance, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.06 percent after posting their biggest one-day gain since July, shares in Meta and Microsoft are selling off ahead of the open after both companies said they were increasing spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, and Alphabet is gaining after it reported a stronger-than-expected performance in its...

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‘Perfect storm’ boosts currencies and risk assets

A confluence of positive catalysts is lifting risk-sensitive currencies and asset prices this morning. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut and bring its quantitative-tightening programme to an end this afternoon. According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump is weighing a reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports, and market sentiment has been further buoyed by gains in the world’s most valuable company after Trump said he would discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell artificial-intelligence chips with Xi Jinping at their meeting tomorrow. Equity futures are climbing ahead of the open, ten-year Treasury yields are anchored below the...

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Trade optimism boosts major currencies against the dollar

Global financial markets are starting the week on a buoyant note, with risk-sensitive assets climbing amid hopes of a more lasting thaw in US-China trade relations. The dollar is retreating, benchmark Treasury yields are pushing lower, and equity futures are rising after negotiators on both sides said they had made significant progress on issues including tariffs, fees, and export controls in the weekend’s bilateral discussions in Kuala Lumpur. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that a “very successful framework” had been established ahead of this week’s meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping. The Canadian dollar is—somewhat counter-intuitively—pushing higher even after...

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Traders brace for US inflation print, Canadian dollar shrugs off Trump trade threats

Currency markets are trading with a slight risk-off flavour as investors await the release of the delayed September inflation report later this morning. Economists expect headline inflation to accelerate slightly on a year-over-year basis, while the less-volatile core measure holds steady, but there is considerable uncertainty around the extent to which tariff-led price increases have translated into upward pressure on goods costs. The dollar is edging higher against a basket of its major peers, ten-year Treasury yields are holding just below the 4 percent threshold, and equity futures are pointing to a stronger open after a series of relatively-positive earnings...

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Momentum trades fade as nerves jangle across markets

With the US government shutdown dragging into a 22nd day, statistical agencies and the Federal Reserve under communications blackouts, and the precious metals complex melting down, the dollar is trading sideways against a basket of its peers this morning. Punters in prediction markets are betting that the government will remain closed until mid November, and the political tea leaves aren’t looking promising. In contrast with prior episodes, polls are showing that voters think both Republicans and Democrats share the blame for failing to find a funding solution, and the president’s approval ratings are holding firm, suggesting that the forces that...

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