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Market Brief, North America

Hawkish Fed minutes keep dollar well-supported

Good morning. The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts as the aftermath of yesterday’s more hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve minutes puts upward pressure on yields and weakens demand for speculative asset classes. Ten-year Treasury yields are inching higher, equity futures are setting up for modest losses ahead of the North American open, and the euro, pound, and Mexican peso are all coming under mild selling pressure even as rate curves shift upward in sympathy. Federal Reserve officials showed little inclination to ease policy at last month’s meeting, with the bulk of the rate-setting committee hoping to see further progress...

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Markets show tentative signs of recovery

Investors are bargain-hunting across the financial markets this morning, scooping up discounted assets after a multi-week selloff. Futures on North American equity markets are pointing to gains after the open, Treasury yields are inching higher, and economically-sensitive currencies are outperforming their safe-haven brethren amid a broader improvement in risk appetite. The Canadian dollar remains narrowly rangebound after yesterday’s inflation figures failed to alter expectations for the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year. After delivering an aggressive 200 basis points in easing over the last two years, the Bank has landed near what...

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Currency traders seek safe havens as turbulence continues

Good morning. Risk aversion is dominating markets as trading resumes after yesterday’s North American holiday. The dollar and safe-haven yen are extending their gains, two-year Treasury yields are sliding toward three-year lows, and equity futures are pointing to a weaker open as investors brace for a continuation of last week’s rotation away from AI-exposed businesses. Oil prices are slightly higher on reports that Iran has closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz for military exercises. Here in Canada, inflation pressures eased more than expected last month. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the headline consumer price index climbing...

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Relief washes over markets as US inflation print meets expectations

Consumer price growth avoided a widely-feared acceleration in the United States last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to adopt a slightly more accommodative stance in the months to come. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—climbed 2.5 percent in the year ending in January, matching consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, and was up 0.2 percent from December. On a headline all-items basis, prices rose 2.4 percent year-over-year—slower than the 2.5 percent expected in markets—and...

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Dollar bears shrug off positive payrolls

Good morning. The dollar is edging lower even after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected jobs data drove a hawkish repricing in US growth and monetary policy expectations. Treasury yields are holding steady, North American equity indices are setting up for a mixed open, and most major currency pairs—including the Australian and Canadian dollars, the British pound, and the euro—are trading within tightly-defined ranges. January’s headline payrolls figure came in nearly double consensus forecasts and unemployment fell unexpectedly, reducing market-implied odds of an early rate cut, lifting 10-year yields and triggering a sharp dollar rally. The surface details looked positive: 130,000 new jobs against...

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