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Market Brief, North America

17 Jun 2025

Dollar’s Decline Remains Intact Even As Risk Backdrop Worsens

The dollar is up slightly this morning, but remains on course toward its worst year-to-date performance in this century, even as geopolitical risks simmer in the background and the Federal Reserve grapples with a raft of potential inflation risks. Yields are under pressure, equity markets are headed for a mixed open, and measures of risk sentiment are softening ahead of an expected Israeli assault on Tehran later today — as well as tomorrow’s all-important Fed meeting. American consumers turned slightly more cautious in May, paying little heed to a 90-day tariff pause announced by the Trump administration — and the...

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16 Jun 2025

Geopolitical Concerns Ease Ahead of Action-Packed Week

Measures of market stress are moderating ahead of a week crammed with a combustible array of potential volatility catalysts including an escalation in Middle East hostilities, three major central bank meetings and a raft of first-tier economic data. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to a recovery from Friday’s losses, and the dollar’s gains are fading in the face of renewed advances from the euro, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and Australian dollar. An easing in geopolitical uncertainty is putting safe-haven currencies under pressure and oil prices are retreating after Israel and Iran avoided targeting critical energy infrastructure...

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13 Jun 2025

Israeli Attack on Iran Leaves Markets Rattled

Financial markets are suffering another round of tumult this morning after Israel launched dozens of air strikes against Iran, targeting its air defences, nuclear programme, and military leadership. As we go to print, it is clear that at least twenty top officials in Iran – including the military chief of staff, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, secretary of the National Security Council, and a number of nuclear scientists – have been killed, and that the Israeli Air Force has established air superiority over much of the country, paving the way for more intensive operations against nuclear enrichment infrastructure. Equity futures...

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11 Jun 2025

Dollar Slips and Markets Rip Higher As Soft US Inflation Data Bolsters Rate Cut Bets

The US dollar is trading with a modestly weaker bias after fresh evidence that price pressures are moderating in the world’s largest economy reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as October. Underlying inflation eased by more than expected last month. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning showed core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, climbing just 0.1 percent in May from a month earlier, slowing from the 0.2-percent pace recorded in April, and undershooting market expectations for a steady print. Core prices rose 2.8 percent on a year-over-year...

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10 Jun 2025

Currencies Calm Even As Pound Slumps On Labour Market Cooling

The greenback is edging higher against most of its advanced-economy counterparts, but traders remain cautious as they await tomorrow’s inflation release, Thursday’s long-dated Treasury auction, and any substantive breakthroughs in US-China trade negotiations. North American equity futures are little changed, yields are inching lower, and all major currency pairs – other than those involving the British pound – are stuck within incredibly-tight trading ranges as the data calendar slows and the Federal Reserve’s blackout period remains in effect, leaving markets to trade on shifts in broader sentiment. The pound is the lone exception to the sense of calm* after selling...

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