Market Brief, North America

Good morning. Oil prices are extending their gains as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, and the dollar remains on the defensive after yesterday’s June inflation report came in well below forecasts. President Trump reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports yesterday, and Tehran threatened to close “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies”—language widely interpreted as a signal that Iran intends to use its proxies in Yemen to shut the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean through which a further 14% of global trade passes. Brent...

Good morning. Oil prices are up nearly 15% from Friday’s close and the dollar is retreating after an escalation between Washington and Tehran led to a collapse in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, again threatening global energy supplies. After a series of Iranian attacks on shipping and military skirmishes, President Trump yesterday reinstated a naval blockade on Iran, declaring the United States would become the Strait’s “guardian” and that it “will remain open, with or without Iran”. He also announced a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the waterway*—a levy that would materially raise the cost of a barrel...

Good morning. Oil prices and currency markets are stabilising after yet another escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran left the status quo* in the Strait of Hormuz largely intact. In the aftermath of Tuesday’s Iranian attacks on shipping, President Trump said the ceasefire was “over” and authorised American forces to launch a second wave of strikes against Iranian targets last night, prompting Tehran to strike back at US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Global crude benchmarks are almost unchanged from yesterday’s close, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are pointing to an incremental...