Market Brief, North America

Good morning. The dollar is holding firm even after Thursday’s disappointing non-farm payrolls report triggered a pullback in Federal Reserve tightening expectations. American employers added just 57,000 workers in June, far short of the 115,000 forecast, and revisions lopped a combined 74,000 from the previous two months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but not because of a pickup in hiring—labour-force participation dropped to 61.5%, its lowest since March 2021. With a no-hire, no-fire equilibrium persisting and wage pressures seen remaining contained, investors are placing 20% odds on a hike in July and 45% on a move by September, down...

Good morning. In the absence of any major volatility catalysts, the dollar is adding to its gains and Treasury yields are holding firm, with equity futures pointing to a flat open. Oil prices have fallen back to levels last seen before the US-Israeli-Iranian conflict began at the end of February, and the skirmishes that continue to flare are drawing diminishing reactions from markets—a sign that traders have moved on from the war as a primary driver and are trading the macro picture instead. Treasury markets barely reacted yesterday when the Supreme Court blocked President Trump’s effort to fire Federal Reserve...