Market Brief, North America

Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. The dollar is holding firm, with investors and economists overwhelmingly convinced the Fed will raise rates for the first time in more than three years, amid a surge in global energy prices and a jump in long-term yields. Oil remains above $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia, after coming under sustained attack from Iran and its allies, suspended loading at its Yanbu port and cancelled some shipments to Europe. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding just below 5%, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the North American open....

Happy Monday. Long-term bond yields are climbing and the dollar is advancing as a rebound in global energy prices raises the stakes ahead of central bank decisions later this week. Brent crude is trading for nearly $108 a barrel after Houthi militants seized a Red Sea port, threatening oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and drones struck at least two pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, forcing a system-wide shutdown. Equity futures are pointing to losses at the open after US artificial intelligence companies led by OpenAI argued that development should be slowed to allow a better understanding...

Good morning. The US dollar is trading near a seven-month low ahead of key inflation data today and tomorrow that could determine the outcome of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed to a trickle after a series of American and Iranian attacks on ships and energy infrastructure, forcing global oil prices back above $100 a barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near a three-year high after the Treasury said yesterday it would buy just $6bn of long-dated bonds in its buyback operation, disappointing investors who had expected a purchase volume closer to $10bn....

Good morning. The dollar is holding firm as a new outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East sends oil prices to their highest since late July, raising the stakes ahead of Friday’s US inflation report—and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is holding near $100 a barrel after the US and Iran each attacked oil tankers over the weekend, and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis struck energy facilities and cities across Saudi Arabia. Ten-year Treasury yields are near levels last seen in January 2025, equity futures are pointing to a weaker open, and speculators are paring long bets...