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Market Brief, North America

Santa Claws selloff abates

The slow-motion flight to safety that began on the weekend is showing signs of exhaustion in currency markets this morning, but sentiment remains fragile. Japanese government bond yields are stabilising after a hawkish speech from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda triggered a selloff in yesterday’s session, and rates are edging down across most advanced-economy debt markets. Benchmark ten-year US Treasury yields are holding firm after an eight-basis-point jump, equity futures are reversing higher, cryptocurrencies are slowing their decline, and the dollar is trading sideways as participants keep a wary eye on the exits. Calm should return. The weekend’s bringing-forward...

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Hawkish Japanese policy rhetoric destabilises currency markets

Financial markets are kicking off December in a turbulent fashion as policy tightening hints from the Bank of Japan nudge global rates higher and dull the dollar’s appeal. Ten-year Treasury yields are up nearly four basis points, equity futures are pointing to small early declines, and the greenback is slipping against a broad basket of peers ahead of the North American open. The yen is outperforming its counterparts after Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda appeared to lay the groundwork for a December rate hike. The currency advanced as much as 0.6 percent against the dollar this morning when Ueda...

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Currency markets grapple with Hassett’s rise as Fed chair candidate, along with UK budget chaos

Currencies are trading on a mixed footing this morning as investors pivot from expecting some Federal Reserve easing to anticipating too much. The dollar slumped, equity markets rallied, and yield curves shifted in yesterday’s session when Bloomberg reported that Kevin Hassett had become the front-runner in the race to replace Jerome Powell at the head of the world’s most powerful central bank. Hassett—now heading the National Economic Council and once a senior Fed official—is regarded as a capable economist, but also as someone more inclined to heed the president’s call for lower rates, even at the risk of stoking longer-term...

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Optimism returns as ‘Fed put’ comes back into play

Financial markets are back in recovery mode and Nasdaq is coming off its best day in six months as growing evidence of a “Fed put” boosts risk appetite. Index futures are pointing to further gains, Treasury yields are down across the curve, and the dollar is losing altitude after Federal Reserve officials expressed deepening concern about labour market softness, prompting a recovery in technology stocks and encouraging investors to set aside—at least for now—worries about stretched valuations. Markets are pricing in a nearly 80-percent chance of a December rate cut—up from less than 30 percent only a week ago—after New...

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Risk appetite turns fragile, markets reverse some gains

The dollar is slipping from its highs, Treasury yields are inching lower, and stock market indices are retrenching as investors trim exposures to the technology sector amid an ongoing retreat from speculative asset classes. With US markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and likely thinly-populated on Black Friday, traders are working to compress position adjustments into the first three days of the week, and price action is accelerating across the foreign exchange markets, extending a broader rise in measures of implied volatility. Expectations for a cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting jumped spectacularly on Friday morning, weakening the...

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