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Market Brief, North America

Selloff loses steam, traders remain on tenterhooks

After several days of turbulence, selling pressure is easing across financial markets, suggesting that investors expect US president Donald Trump to adopt a less confrontational approach when meeting in person with his counterparts at the World Economic Forum in Davos later today. The dollar is steadying against its peers, Treasury yields are stabilising near recent highs, and equity futures are pointing to a modest advance when North American markets open. Scarring will remain. For the second time in a year, markets have warned that the consequences of the president’s actions could weigh most heavily on the United States itself, not...

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‘Sell America’ trade intensifies

Equity futures, Treasuries, and the dollar are down for a second day as investors shun US assets in the aftermath of the weekend’s Greenland-related tariff threats from Donald Trump, and selling in Japanese bond markets puts upward pressure on global yields. On Saturday, Trump threatened to impose import taxes on goods from European countries until they allow the US to buy the Danish territory, beginning with a 10-percent levy on February 1 and increasing to 25-percent on June 1. He then sent a message to Norway’s Prime Minister saying that he no longer feels obliged to “think purely of Peace”...

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Dollar tumbles as Trump renews tariff threats

Good morning. The dollar is back on the defensive as investors digest weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who threatened tariffs on European countries that do not support his push to acquire Greenland and later sent a letter to foreign embassies linking the move to Norway’s refusal to award him the Nobel Peace Prize. US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday and liquidity conditions are thin, but the greenback is trading roughly a quarter-percent lower against a basket of its rivals, and the euro is climbing even as European leaders prepare a package of retaliatory measures. The...

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Currency ranges tighten as complacency sets in

Good morning. Currency markets have slipped back into extremely tight ranges as geopolitical fears recede and incoming data point to “Goldilocks” conditions across much of the advanced world. Realised volatility across asset classes remains exceptionally low, and implied volatility measures show investors are unworried about shocks: the VIX has fallen well below traditional fear thresholds, the MOVE* Treasury index is at its lowest since 2021, and average six-month implied volatility in the major foreign exchange pairs has dropped to levels not seen since early 2024. The British pound is struggling to make headway, even after new data showed the economy...

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Fundamental drivers reassert themselves in currency markets

Good morning. After a series of early-week distractions, currency market drivers are shifting back toward economic fundamentals today, with mixed US data keeping yields within tight ranges and the Japanese yen becoming a key focal point ahead of a potential snap election. Equity futures are setting up for a negative open after modest losses in yesterday’s session, Treasury yields are holding firm across the curve, and the dollar is trading almost imperceptibly lower against a basket of its major counterparts. American consumers continued to engage in retail therapy in November. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning,...

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