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Market Brief, North America

06 Nov 2024

Trump 2.0

• US election. Trump’s decisive win has seen markets reprice the outlook. US equities outperformed, bond yields rose, & the USD strengthened.• Fed outlook. US Fed & BoE expected to deliver cuts tonight. But Trump’s agenda points to fewer Fed rate reductions over 2025.• AUD vol. AUD whipped around by US election results. Prospect for higher US rates suggests the AUD may linger in the mid-$0.60s for some time. The US election has been a major market moving force over the past 24hrs, and the result is likely to be a significant factor that influences how things pan out over...

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06 Nov 2024

Trump Emerges Victorious, Sending Markets Reeling

Republican Donald Trump has defeated Democrat Kamala Harris to secure a second term as US president. His triumph, called just after 5:45 eastern time this morning by news outlets including the Associated Press, ABC, CNN, and the New York Times, could usher in a new wave of US protectionism, mark a shift toward an “America First” foreign policy stance, and end a period of relative calm in foreign exchange markets. Republicans also took majority control of the Senate, and look* set to retain the House of Representatives, handing Trump the power to enact a wide-ranging and radical policy agenda. He...

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05 Nov 2024

Markets Enter Risk-Aversion Mode Ahead of Election

The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are inching higher, and equity indices are setting up for a positive open as the world’s worst reality show enters its final act. Elements of the ‘Trump trade’ are recovering after yesterday’s selloff, with many investors back to betting on the former president after the weekend’s polls suggested that markets were underestimating Kamala Harris’ electoral chances. There are other event risks to consider. The Bank of England is expected to deliver another quarter-point rate cut on Thursday morning, with traders paying particular attention to how policymakers describe the impact of last week’s budget...

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04 Nov 2024

Dollar Softens Amid ‘Trump Trade’ Pullback

The greenback is down against all of its major rivals this morning after investors spent the weekend walking back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. Final polls released yesterday showed the race headed toward a photo finish, with NBC News deadlocked at 49 percent-and-49 percent nationally, ABC News/Ipsos giving Kamala Harris a 49 percent-to-46 percent national edge, New York Times/Siena putting the vice president ahead in five of seven swing states, and the Des Moines Register suggesting that she could win in Iowa – a state long considered a lock for Trump. Major elements of the “Trump...

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01 Nov 2024

Stress Climbs in Currency Markets

The dollar is holding steady and measures of expected currency volatility are ratcheting higher as global investors go to ground ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls report and next week’s presidential election. Ten-year Treasury yields are edging closer to the 4.30-percent threshold after softening briefly earlier in the week, North American equity markets are setting up for a defensive move after a series of mixed earnings reports from the likes of Microsoft and Meta, and oil prices are pushing higher on reports of a potential Iranian escalation in its ongoing tit-for-tat cycle with Israel. Forecasts for job creation in this...

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