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Market Brief, North America

Rally Fades As Uncertainties Remain

Traders are trimming risk after yesterday’s relief rally took market valuations a little too far. A rebound across Treasuries, equity indices, and the US dollar – initially driven by the Trump administration’s rapid retreat from tariff threats against the European Union and hints of a possible shift in Japan’s bond issuance strategy – is retracing against a still-uncertain policy backdrop. In currency markets, the greenback’s gains are fading, while the Canadian dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen are giving back some of their losses. Long-dated government bond yields are inching higher in most developed economies after another bout of...

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Tumult Fades As Intense Trading Week Begins

Measures of risk appetite are improving this morning amid signs of an easing in last week’s bond market tantrum, and following a brief escalation in cross-Atlantic trade tensions. Equity markets are setting up for a near-1-percent advance at the open, Treasury yields are inching lower across the long end of the curve, and the dollar is strengthening as investors brace for a heavy slate of data releases in the coming days. Bonds are rallying across the advanced economies on hints that Japanese authorities could take action to stem upward pressure on long-term yields. According to several media reports, the Ministry...

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Yields Push Higher as Debt Worries Intensify

Treasury markets are extending their losses this morning on worries that funding strains could reach unsustainable levels after the House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s broad-reaching tax-cut bill. By a 215-to-214 margin, the lower chamber passed what Trump has called his “one, big, beautiful” bill early this morning, with two Republicans and all Democrats voting against it. The 30-year Treasury yield is closing on the 5.15-percent threshold, nearing levels only temporarily breached during the Fed-induced selloff in 2023, and previously touched in 2007. The dollar giving back some of its overnight gains, and most of its major counterparts are...

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Dollar Retreats As Market Momentum Slows

The ‘Sell America’ trade is back in play this morning. The dollar is unwinding last week’s gains and is down against all of its major counterparts, US equity markets are setting up for a bruising open, and the Treasury curve is bear steepening*, with 30-year yields pushing back above the 5-percent threshold on growing concerns surrounding Washington’s fiscal trajectory. Oil prices are up on an unsubstantiated report suggesting that Israel is planning a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Fiscal concerns are growing more acute. Republican lawmakers are reportedly close to approving a bill that would renew President Trump’s 2017 tax...

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Markets Retreat on Signs of Consumer Strain

The dollar is retreating as optimism surrounding the weekend’s trade deal continues to diminish and US consumers show signs of exhaustion, leaving investors to contemplate longer-term risks to the American economy. Treasury yields are moving higher, equity indices are indicating a modest softening in today’s session, and most majors – excluding the Canadian and Australian dollars – are up against the greenback. Oil prices are trading lower after President Trump said the US is close to reaching a deal with Tehran that would lift sanctions on its energy exports in exchange for a commitment to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons development....

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