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Market Brief, North America

Market Briefing: Markets Consolidate After Spectacular Rally

The most politically-incorrect word in economics is back. Mentions of “transitory” inflation have come into vogue again after yesterday’s data showed headline prices were unchanged in July after rising every month for the last two years, with the core measure also rising by less than expected. Market participants are increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of hikes, lowering long-term rates and making monetary conditions more accommodative. Last week’s tightening in financial conditions has largely reversed, with yields back to pre-non-farm payrolls levels and the dollar dramatically weaker against most of its major rivals. The greenback slipped as...

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Market Briefing: A Calm Before the Storm Before the Calm Settles Over Markets

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Investors cut exposures ahead of this morning’s critically-important inflation print, leaving most major currency pairs unchanged in overnight trading. The dollar is modestly weaker, and the Treasury curve remains deeply inverted, with two-year yields exceeding their ten-year equivalents by almost 50 basis points – the most since 2000, and a sign that investors expect the economy to fall into a recession. Markets expect inflation pressures to subside somewhat, with the headline measure rising 8.7 percent year-over-year in July, down from 9.1 percent in June. The core measure is seen rising to 6.1 percent from 5.9 percent...

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Market Briefing: Directionless Markets Await Inflation Data

Equity futures are set for a weaker open, yields are higher, and exchange rates are milling about in a confused manner as liquidity ebbs ahead of tomorrow’s consumer price data. The dollar continues to unwind Friday’s gains. Oil prices are ratcheting higher after a report said Ukraine’s Ukrtransnafta last week halted flows across the Druzhba 1 pipeline that delivers Russian crude to Europe. A Bloomberg article quoted a Transneft spokesperson who said sanctions were preventing the payment of a transit fee to the pipeline’s operator. The West Texas Intermediate and Brent benchmarks are up roughly 1 percent each, but the...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Markets Turn Wary

Markets seem to have remembered the most fundamental rule in finance this morning: If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. The dollar is falling and yields are coming under pressure as traders turn slightly more sceptical on the underlying details and near-term sustainability associated with Friday’s astonishingly-strong jobs numbers, with growth seen decelerating and employment rates expected to soften in coming months. Policy expectations are falling. Implied odds on a 75 basis point move at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are holding near 68 percent, up from 40 percent prior to the release, but down relative to...

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Market Briefing: Markets Hit Snooze Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

Traders have set their alarm clocks a little later this morning, with most asset classes set to snore loudly until 8:30 am when the July non-farm payrolls report is released. Equity indices are flat on their backs, the commodities complex is sleeping in the fetal position, Treasury yields and the dollar are nestled under the covers, and most major currency pairs are spooning comfortably. This morning’s jobs number could be vital in setting near-term market direction. Investors expect the July non-farm payrolls report to function a little like Goldilocks’ porridge: If it is too hot, with more than 300,000 jobs...

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