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Market Brief, North America

08 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Markets Turn Wary

Markets seem to have remembered the most fundamental rule in finance this morning: If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. The dollar is falling and yields are coming under pressure as traders turn slightly more sceptical on the underlying details and near-term sustainability associated with Friday’s astonishingly-strong jobs numbers, with growth seen decelerating and employment rates expected to soften in coming months. Policy expectations are falling. Implied odds on a 75 basis point move at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are holding near 68 percent, up from 40 percent prior to the release, but down relative to...

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05 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Hit Snooze Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

Traders have set their alarm clocks a little later this morning, with most asset classes set to snore loudly until 8:30 am when the July non-farm payrolls report is released. Equity indices are flat on their backs, the commodities complex is sleeping in the fetal position, Treasury yields and the dollar are nestled under the covers, and most major currency pairs are spooning comfortably. This morning’s jobs number could be vital in setting near-term market direction. Investors expect the July non-farm payrolls report to function a little like Goldilocks’ porridge: If it is too hot, with more than 300,000 jobs...

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04 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Currency Volatility Subsides as Liquidity Conditions Erode

Currency markets are caught in the August doldrums this morning, with most major exchange rate pairs stuck in windless ranges as traders head out on summer vacations. Yields are flat and the dollar is moving almost imperceptibly as hawkish Federal Reserve officials engage in a tug of war with fearful investors, and risk-sensitive currencies are largely becalmed. Falling US gasoline demand is weighing on global crude benchmarks. Data released by the Energy Information Administration yesterday showed the four-week average of gasoline consumption had fallen 1 million barrels below pre-Covid levels for this time of year. West Texas Intermediate is trading...

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03 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Risk Appetites Return Even as Odds on Fed “Pivot” Fall

Implied volatility is falling and risk-sensitive currencies are recovering after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s aircraft exited Taiwanese airspace without triggering a military response from China. Commodities are firmer, equity indices are marching higher, and safe haven currencies – the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc – are back on the defensive as traders position ahead of what is expected to be a strong non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Yields shot upward yesterday, staging the fourth-biggest rally in five years as a series of Federal Reserve officials pushed back against markets’ overly-dovish interpretation of last week’s decision. San Francisco president Mary...

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02 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Tensions in Taiwan Strait Trigger Market Turmoil

A worsening in relations between the US and China is driving an exodus from risk-sensitive assets this morning. Military forces on both sides of the Strait are on high alert as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – the third highest-ranking official in the US government – is expected to visit Taiwan in a few hours, defying increasingly-strident Chinese threats. The Swiss franc and dollar are well-bid, and long-term debt instruments are in high demand as investors buy insurance against a mishap and raise odds on further escalation in the “war by other means” between China and the United States. Japan’s yen...

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