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Market Brief, North America

29 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Post-Powell Reaction Continues to Lift the Dollar

Risk-sensitive assets are tumbling and the trade-weighted dollar is pushing toward last month’s peak in the wake of Jerome Powell’s “higher for longer” message on Friday. In an elegantly brief and blunt speech at Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve Chair said “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time,” warning this would “bring some pain to households and businesses,” while acknowledging that the “historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy”. After a summer slumber, bears are reawakening. Equity futures are pointing to another day of selling, the ten-year Treasury yield is nudging 3.1...

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26 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Slips as Traders Prepare for One Last Summer Squall

Across the financial markets, traders are battening down the hatches in preparation for a stormy reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole later this morning. Ten-year Treasury yields are up, equity indices are returning some of yesterday’s gains. The dollar is trading on a slightly weaker footing – up against the pound and the Mexican peso, down against the euro, yen, yuan, and loonie. Traders think Powell will reiterate a data-dependent policy stance, leaving expectations for the September meeting essentially unmoved. Although the Fed chair’s thoughts on current economic conditions will be carefully analyzed, there will...

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25 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Bulls Start Feeling A Little Hawkward

The greenback is retreating as bullish dollar sentiment softens ahead of tomorrow’s central bank meeting in Jackson Hole. Commodity-linked and high-beta currencies are climbing on the prospect of more stimulus from China, and the euro and pound are inching up on a broader sense of optimism – even as benchmark European energy prices break new records. Mr. Powell is expected to outline a policy path that takes rates into restrictive territory and keeps them there as the central bank responds to post-pandemic shifts in the global economy. In keeping with the academic nature of the conference, he is likely to...

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24 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Slowing US Economy Weighs on Dollar

The dollar is holding steady after yesterday’s data showing a slowing in momentum across the world’s biggest economy. Business activity fell further into contractionary territory in early August, according to S&P’s composite purchasing managers index, which showed a second month of weakness in manufacturing and the all-important services sector. Data from the Census Bureau showed new-home sales falling to an annualized 511,000 in July – the lowest in six years, and well below expectations for a 575,000 gain. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected shrug this off in Jackson Hole on Friday, saying that the economy remains strong, with...

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23 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Steamrolls Rivals Ahead of Powell Speech

Global markets are bowing before the almighty dollar once more as investors brace for Friday’s central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Every major US equity index ended yesterday in the red, commodities are down again, and risk-sensitive currencies are in retreat. Markets think Mr. Powell will assert the Federal Reserve’s intent to lift rates into restrictive territory – and keep them at those levels – in Friday’s speech. Terminal Fed Funds expectations have shot up from 3.25 percent in late July to 3.75 percent now, and implied rate cuts have fallen by more than a third as investors have...

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