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Market Brief, North America

Dollar Retreat Gains Momentum on Tech Sector Plunge

Futures on US stock markets are tumbling this morning as outsized performance gains from China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence start-up raise uncomfortable questions about the competitive moats surrounding America’s biggest tech firms. According to artificial intelligence experts, a thinly-resourced open-source large language model released by the Chinese company last week shows comparable performance to those built by US firms like OpenAI and Meta, suggesting that the race among Silicon Valley firms to invest tens of billions of dollars in advanced chips may not pay off—at least not for those on the vanguard. DeepSeek’s chatbot topped downloads on Apple’s App Store over...

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Easing US-China Tensions Boost Risk Appetite

Financial markets are back in risk-on mode after US President Donald Trump appeared to suggest that he could avoid putting tariffs on Chinese imports, backing off a campaign pledge to hit the country with a 60-percent levy. In a previously-recorded interview with Fox News that aired in the United States last night, Trump said “We have one very big power over China, and that’s tariffs, and they don’t want them. And I’d rather not have to use it, but it’s a tremendous power over China,” also noting that he had a “great relationship” with Chinese president Xi Jinping prior to...

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Calm After the Storm Settles on Currency Markets

Financial markets are enjoying a period of placidity amid a relative lack of new headline risks related to the incoming administration’s trade, immigration, and fiscal policy plans. The global borrowing cost benchmark—the ten-year US Treasury yield—is holding near 4.62 percent, down from last week’s flirtation with the 4.8-percent threshold, equity futures are inching higher, and the dollar is eking out small gains after President Trump generally avoided discussing the economy and stopped short of issuing new tariff threats in a closely-watched interview with Fox News last night. US labour markets showed signs of stabilising in recent weeks. According to data...

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Currency Markets Retreat as Tariff Nerves Fray

Currency traders are suffering from whiplash after Donald Trump made volatility great again in his first day back in office. The dollar is on the offensive and currencies like the peso, Canadian dollar, and euro are down after the president said he plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico on February 1. In an unscripted conversation with reporters last night, Trump said the United States’ closest neighbours were allowing “mass numbers of people to come in and fentanyl to come in,” calling Canada “a very bad abuser”. Trump also warned he “may” impose a universal...

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Markets Stay on Edge Ahead of Inauguration

An uneasy calm is settling on currency markets as traders brace for a “shock and awe” campaign on the policy front when Donald Trump takes office for a second time this afternoon. Ten-year Treasury yields are under pressure after last week’s softer-than-feared inflation and retail sales numbers, the dollar is retreating against most of its rivals on reports of a “very good” call between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping over the weekend, and the euro and pound are advancing on a narrowing in cross-Atlantic rate differentials. Price action in currency markets could intensify shortly after the inauguration ceremony concludes....

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