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Market Brief, North America

09 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Major currencies stabilize ahead of October inflation number

Price action in the currency markets looks relatively subdued this morning, with lingering midterm election uncertainties and tomorrow’s critical October inflation report acting to restrain directional position-taking. The dollar is trading slightly higher, Treasuries, gilts, and bunds are moving sideways, and both the euro and pound are stuck in incredibly-tight trading ranges. Results are still coming in, but it is already clear that no “red wave” materialized in yesterday’s elections. The Republican Party is likely to win the House by a slim margin, enabling it to stymie large-scale legislative changes, block efforts to lift the debt ceiling, and launch investigations...

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08 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Currency markets enter pre-midterm lull

US equity indices are pointing to marginal gains and the dollar is holding steady ahead of today’s midterm elections and a critical October inflation report later in the week. The euro is clinging to parity, the pound is tightly rangebound, and the yen is inching higher as we go to pixels. Both global oil benchmarks are up more than 3 percent on the day, with Brent challenging the $100 mark as seasonal imbalances interact with Russian sanctions and OPEC+ production cuts to drive prices higher. Overall global demand has weakened by more than expected in recent months, but inventories are...

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07 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Currencies turn more buoyant in the calm after the storm

Financial markets are adding risk after last week’s unusually-eventful week for macroeconomic developments. Equity futures are climbing, bond yields are holding steady, and the dollar is losing altitude as expectations for Federal Reserve policy begin to stabilize in response to Chair Jerome Powell’s “slower-but-higher” message at Wednesday’s meeting, and after Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment data. After Jerome Powell warned markets not to expect a pause in the months to come, investors expect the Federal Reserve to deliver another half-percentage-point hike in December, with the upper end of the Fed Funds target range climbing to 5.25 percent by mid-2023. The offshore Chinese...

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02 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Go Quiet Ahead of Fed Decision

Good morning and happy Federal Reserve day to all who celebrate. With asset prices resembling Schrödinger’s cat – simultaneously poised for a rally or a crash – bond yields are steady and exchange rates are tightly rangebound ahead of this afternoon’s highly-anticipated announcement. The central bank is widely expected to raise rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point, while signalling a coming deceleration in tightening. The big question for markets is how Jerome Powell will manage the accompanying communications conundrum, somehow telling investors to expect a slower pace of rate hikes without triggering a drastic loosening in financial conditions....

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01 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Make Valiant Attempt at Rallying Into Fed Decision

Global equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies are rallying this morning as rumours of an easing in China’s “covid-zero” policy spread across social media – but gains look vulnerable as official sources strenuously deny any changes are afoot. The DXY dollar index is down almost 0.6 percent and the yen – strongly correlated with the S&P 500 – is up sharply as North American traders hit their desks, suggesting that markets are setting up for a Santa Claus rally even as the outcome of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision remains uncertain. The 10-year Treasury yield has slipped well below the 4 percent...

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