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Market Brief, North America

Market Briefing: Dollar Jumps Into the Hole

Traders are cutting risk and buying the dollar going into the holiest of holies on the central bank calendar – the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Treasury yields are rising, equity futures are dropping, and the trade-weighted greenback is up roughly 0.3 percent as markets position ahead of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech next Friday morning. Mr. Powell is widely expected to argue against the arguably-premature loosening in financial conditions that has occurred since the July meeting, attempting to better align market forecasts with the central bank’s own terminal rate projections. This is unlikely to drive a...

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Market Briefing: Markets Tread Water After Fed Minutes

Major asset classes are moving sideways and implied volatility in the currency markets is falling after a record of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting largely confirmed prevailing investor views. Oil and commodity prices are climbing after Chinese authorities signalled an acceleration in stimulus efforts. Bloomberg quoted state media sources as saying local governments had been authorized to sell an additional $226 billion in bonds, helping to support spending and avoid a “fiscal cliff”. President Xi Jinping said authorities would try to balance growth with disease-control policies, continuing the process of opening the economy up. The expressions of support come on...

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Market Briefing: Markets Fade Ahead of Potentially-Sobering Fed Minutes

Investors are bracing for hawkish language when the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its recent policy meeting this afternoon. Equity futures are under pressure, ten-year Treasury yields are ticking higher, and the dollar is inching forward against most of its major rivals. Inflation in the United Kingdom hit 10.1 percent in July, up from a year-over-year pace of 9.4 percent in June as surging food and energy prices cut living standards. Data released by the Office for National Statistics this morning showed the fastest increase in headline consumer prices in more than four decades, paired with a much hotter-than-expected rise...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Keeps Rising. We Don’t Know Why.

The dollar is climbing for a second day, but coherent explanations for the move are in short supply. One could argue that investors are clinging to safe havens as the prospect of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy darkens the outlook, but China’s peculiar growth model means it subtracts net demand from the rest of the world, and commodity-linked and growth-sensitive currencies appear to be holding ground so far. Europe is relatively quiet. The pound exhibited no discernible reaction earlier this morning on signs of cooling in the British labour market, and the euro remains under pressure on news...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Climbs on Big Trouble in Even Bigger China

Evidence of a deep and prolonged slowdown in the Chinese economy is taking a toll on global risk sentiment this morning, with safe haven demand sending the dollar higher amid parched liquidity conditions. Raw materials prices are falling, commodity-linked currencies are on the defensive, and North American equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. Treasury yields are essentially flat as some investors cling to bets on a “soft landing” — in which inflation decelerates but a deep recession is avoided — in the US economy. Consumer sentiment improved by more than expected in early August. According to estimates...

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