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Market Brief, North America

02 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Stabilize as Payrolls Report Looms

Yields are flat and the dollar is holding steady after hitting multi-decade highs during yesterday’s trading session. This morning‘s non-farm payrolls report is expected to clear the way for a three-quarter-point hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Economists think the US economy generated 290,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at around 3.5 percent in August, with the labour market proving robust amid a central bank-engineered tightening in financial conditions. Data released yesterday showed initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, falling to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 last week from 237,000 the previous week. Financial markets might welcome signs...

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01 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Goldilocks Flees as Central Bank Bears Return Home

Markets are extending losses after a protracted August selloff. Hopes for a “soft landing” are fading as central bankers systematically lift terminal rate forecasts and rhetorically demolish odds on a 2023 policy pivot – pushing monetary policy expectations firmly into economically-restrictive territory. Ten-year yields are back at early-June levels, and the two-year Treasury briefly hit 3.5 percent for the first time since 2007 yesterday. Equity futures are down, energy commodities are dropping, and the dollar is grinding higher against its major rivals. The Japanese yen is knocking on levels not seen since 1998 as rising US yields diminish its attractiveness...

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31 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Global Selloff Continues, Driving Dollar Higher

A terrible, horrible, no good, very bad summer in markets is coming to an ignominious end. The dollar is nearing its mid-July peak and Treasury yields are climbing after three consecutive days of selling contrived to crush a mid-August rally on global stock bourses. Evidence of an economic slowdown is dissipating, fast. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said yesterday there were 11.2 million unfilled jobs in the US last month, amounting to two openings for each unemployed person. The Conference Board reported a sharp improvement in consumer confidence, with households saying they plan to buy more big-ticket items in the...

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30 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Slips as Cross-Asset Selling Pressure Subsides

Futures are up and yields on two- and ten-year Treasuries are easing, raising hopes of a market reversal after two days of bruising losses. The dollar is weaker, down roughly 0.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis, signalling an end to a safe haven rally sparked by Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s aggressively-hawkish speech on Friday. The euro is lifting itself off the floor on positive developments in power markets. Benchmark electricity and natural gas contracts dropped again today as European Union officials mooted a plan to intervene in markets, instituting price caps across the energy value chain. Prices plunged yesterday after...

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29 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Post-Powell Reaction Continues to Lift the Dollar

Risk-sensitive assets are tumbling and the trade-weighted dollar is pushing toward last month’s peak in the wake of Jerome Powell’s “higher for longer” message on Friday. In an elegantly brief and blunt speech at Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve Chair said “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time,” warning this would “bring some pain to households and businesses,” while acknowledging that the “historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy”. After a summer slumber, bears are reawakening. Equity futures are pointing to another day of selling, the ten-year Treasury yield is nudging 3.1...

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