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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

23 Jun 2024

Inflation & politics this weeks focus

• Macro trends. Weaker EZ PMIs weighed on EUR. Positive US surprises also helped the USD. AUD drifted lower, but still rose over the week.• AUD crosses. Diverging trends still AUD supportive, particularly on crosses. AUD/EUR & AUD/CAD near respective 1-year highs. AUD/JPY north of 106.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI (Weds) & speech by the RBA Dep. Gov in focus. US PCE deflator due (Fri) & first Presidential Election debate will be held. Diverging business PMI data from Europe and the US generated a few intra-session market gyrations on Friday. The US data defied gravity with the PMIs improving...

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20 Jun 2024

AUD cross-currents

• Mixed markets. European equities rose, while US stocks slipped back. Dovish European central bank outcomes weighed on EUR & GBP. USD a bit firmer.• Central banks. SNB cut rates again. The BoE opened the door to a move in August. The cross-currents pushed AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP higher.• Data flow. PMIs in focus today with data from Europe & the US due. Is the US’ outperformance fading? If so, the USD may lose ground. There were several pieces of global economic news overnight, yet for the most part the net financial market moves were modest. Equities across Europe rose again...

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19 Jun 2024

AUD outperformance continues

• Quiet trade. A public holiday in the US. European equities a bit lower. UK yields a touch higher after UK services inflation surprised. USD consolidates.• AUD trends. The AUD’s post RBA grind higher extended. AUD/EUR touched a 1-year high, AUD/JPY at levels last traded in 2013.• Global data. Q1 NZ GDP shows economy emerged from ‘technical recession’. Bank of England meeting tonight. With the US away on a mid-week public holiday markets were quiet overnight. US equity and bond markets were closed. In Europe, equities gave back a little ground (EuroStoxx50 -0.6%), although the UK FTSE100 moved in the...

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17 Jun 2024

Will the RBA hold the line?

• Positive vibes. Concerns about the upcoming French election settled down. Equities rose, as did bond yields, with EUR also a little higher.• RBA today. No change from the RBA anticipated. It is likely to reiterate that it isn’t ruling anything in or out. The first RBA cut isn’t priced until mid-2025.• Global data. Yesterday’s China data batch was mixed. Tonight, US retail sales are released. A modest rebound is US consumer spending is predicted. A bit more of a positive tone in markets at the start of the new week. Concerns in Europe about the upcoming French parliamentary elections...

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16 Jun 2024

European political jitters

• European concerns. French political risks weighing on European assets. EUR near a ~1-month low. This, and a softer JPY, has supported the USD.• AUD cross-currents. Backdrop has seen AUD drift back. But it isn’t all one-way. AUD/EUR near the upper end of its 2024 range.• Event radar. RBA meets (Tues). Offshore, in addition to French politics, markets focused on the China data, US retail sales, Fed speakers, BoE meeting, & PMIs. Nerves about the potential outcome of the upcoming French parliamentary elections (30 June & 7 July) continued to dampen sentiment in Europe at the end of last week....

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