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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

01 Sep 2024

Will US payrolls rebound?

• Mixed signals. US equities rose on Friday. Bond yields nudged up. US holiday tonight but there is plenty of important data on the horizon.• USD bounce. Higher US yields generated a bit of USD support. AUD eased. Markets still look to be pricing in too much US Fed easing, in our view.• Event radar. Locally, Q2 GDP & a speech by RBA Gov. Bullock in focus. Offshore, US jobs data due with non-farm payrolls rounding out the week. US equities rose on Friday with the S&P500 (+1%) now fractionally under its record high. The early-August panic volatility has faded...

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28 Aug 2024

Swings & roundabouts

• Mixed markets. US equities dip with Nvidia lower in after hours trading. USD a touch firmer. AUD still hovering near the top of its multi-month range.• AU inflation. Headline CPI slows, but not as much as predicted. Underlying inflation still sticky. RBA unlikely to ‘pivot’ like the US Fed for some time.• Global data. US weekly jobless claims & German inflation due tonight. Tomorrow, Eurozone CPI & the US PCE deflator are released. Light news and data flow has kept most major asset classes range-bound over the past 24hrs. US equities slipped back ahead of the much-anticipated results update...

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27 Aug 2024

Hanging in there

• Range bound. Limited moves across most markets. News flow has been light. USD drifted lower. AUD & NZD towards the top of their respective ranges.• Iron ore. The revival has continued. Iron ore prices now over 11% above mid-August lows on the back of signs oversupply risks are easing.• AU inflation. Monthly CPI due today. A lot of uncertainty because of electricity subsidies. A large drop in headline inflation could drag on the AUD. ‘Steady as she goes’ over the past 24hrs with consolidation the main theme across most major markets. News flow has been light. The major European...

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26 Aug 2024

Holding pattern

• Consolidation. Partial reversal in some markets. US equities slip back while yields & the USD tick up. AUD eased but still near the top of its range.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation due tomorrow. A lot of uncertainty due to electricity subsidies. A large drop in the annual headline rate could weigh on the AUD.• Fed pricing. Markets grappling with whether the US Fed will cut rates by 25bps or 50bps at upcoming meetings. History & the data points to 25bp steps. After the outsized moves last week it isn’t surprising to see that some markets cooled their jets a...

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25 Aug 2024

The time has come

• Dovish Powell. US Fed Chair gave strong signals the start of the rate cutting cycle is approaching. Focus now on downside labour market risks.• Market jolt. Equities & commodities jumped, bond yields & the USD declined. AUD at the top of its 7-month range. EUR highest since mid-2023.• Event radar. Locally, July CPI (Weds), CAPEX (Thurs), & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, Eurozone inflation & US PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Markets ended last week on a positive note with the more dovish than anticipated message from US Fed Chair Powell boosting risk sentiment (see below). US equities...

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