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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

11 Nov 2024

Diverging trends

• Hold the line. US equities at record highs, while shifting spreads are supporting the USD. EUR at multi-month low. AUD drifting back.• AUD divergence. AUD losing ground to the stronger USD. But it is holding up on the crosses. We expect these trends to continue.• Data flow. AU business conditions out today, as is the UK jobs report. Several US Fed members speaking over the next few sessions. It has been a quiet start to the week. Unsurprising given the US bond market was closed for Veteran’s Day and the lack of data releases/new information to move the dial....

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10 Nov 2024

Hang on for the ride

• Market swings. US equities rose, while widening yield spreads support the USD. AUD slips back after China stimulus underwhelms.• FX trends. The Trump policy mix looks set to keep the USD stronger for longer. We think this will constrain the AUD’s medium-term upside.• Event radar. Locally, wages & monthly jobs report are due. US CPI inflation, retail sales, speech by Fed Chair Powell, & China data also scheduled. Market gyrations continued Friday as the win by President Trump in the US elections (and prospect of a Republican sweep of Congress) is incorporated into people’s projections, central bank actions washed...

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07 Nov 2024

Cool your jets

• Market swings. US equities powered ahead, while bond yields & the USD gave back some of their post US election gains. AUD & NZD rose.• Central banks. BoE & US Fed cut rates. Fed still on a path towards ‘neutral’. In time Trump policies may constrain its ability to lower rates as far as it thinks.• China measures. AUD & other cyclical assets also boosted by expectations China will announce more stimulus. Will China underdeliver again? A reversal of fortunes across most asset classes over the past 24hrs as markets cooled their jets a bit about President Trump’s second...

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05 Nov 2024

The race is on

• Getting set. Risk assets outperformed overnight & the USD lost ground. A paring back of ‘Trump trades’ continued ahead of the big event.• US election. Voting progressively closes later today. The battleground states are key. Bursts of market volatility look likely as results flow out.• RBA holds. No change in rates or guidance. The RBA is standing out from the pack. Gradual/modest policy easing anticipated over 2025. Risk assets outperformed overnight as voting in the US election got underway. Given the narrowing in opinion polls and probability gauges over recent days market participants have continued to hedge their bets...

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04 Nov 2024

US election day

• Election jitters. A quiet start to the week with traders paring back some ‘Trump trades’. US equities eased & yields declined. USD a bit softer.• US politics. Polls & probability gauges suggest the result is a toss-up. Binary reaction to the outcome likely with volatility also on the horizon.• RBA today. No RBA policy changes expected. It may tweak its macro forecasts. We still think the start of its easing cycle is a story for H1 2025. It has been a relatively quiet start to the week with markets lasering in on the upcoming US Presidential Election. The narrower...

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