Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

• USD strength. Positive USD data & a patient Fed has supported the USD. This has weighed on other currencies like the AUD & NZD.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation softer than predicted. This reinforced expectations looking for the RBA to cut rates in August & deliver more ‘relief’ later this year.• Seasonal trends. USD rebound & unfolding AUD weakness inline with seasonal patterns at this time of year. Risk of more to come. Global Trends A run of positive US centric events boosted US bond yields and the USD overnight. Firstly, the latest batch of US data extended the recent...

• Dealmaker. Trade optimism supported US equities & USD at end of last week. AUD & NZD drifted a little lower. EUR ticked higher this morning.• US/EU deal. Over weekend US/EU announced a 15% tariff framework. Deal is similar to US/Japan. More ‘stability’ but economic headwinds remain.• Event Radar. Q2 AU CPI due (Weds). In the US this week earnings season continues, Q2 GDP & non-farm payrolls are out, & US Fed meets. Global Trends There was some relative outperformance in US markets at the end of last week. In contrast to modest falls across European/Asian equities on Friday the...

• Upbeat tone. No news has been good news. US equities rose, while bond yields & USD slipped back. AUD a bit higher at start of new week.• RBA guidance. RBA meeting minutes out today. Governor Bullock speaks later in the week. Will the RBA support expectations looking for multiple cuts?• Data flow. Global PMIs due later this week. US corporate earnings also in focus with over 100 companies in S&P500 reporting over the next few days. Global Trends It has been a relatively positive start to the new week for risk assets. The US S&P500 (+0.1%) touched yet another...

• Hanging on. A quieter end to last week. US equities consolidated. USD a bit softer. AUD & NZD ticked up but still lost ground over the week.• US trends. US data has generally been a bit better than anticipated recently. Will this trend continue & will the USD’s rebound extend?• Event Radar. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks (Thurs) & the ECB meets (Thurs night). The global business PMIs are also due later this week. Global Trends After a few bursts of volatility earlier in the week it was an uneventful trading session on Friday. US equities consolidated around record highs,...

• Market jolt. Reports & denials about whether Chair Powell may be removed generated a burst of volatility. On net, US equities rose & USD weakened.• Fed changes. Fed Chair can’t be fired ‘without cause’. Disagreement over rates not enough. Potential change another example of US policy uncertainty.• AU jobs. Volatile Australian jobs report released today. Will it show cracks are widening? US retail sales & import prices out tonight. Global Trends A burst of headline driven volatility washed through markets overnight. Rather than being tariff related it stemmed from possible changes at the top of the US Federal Reserve....