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18 Mar 2026

18 Mar 2026

Market wobbles return

• Negative vibes. Another jump in energy prices & upward repricing in interest rates dampened risk sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD underperform.• Macro news. Asia exposed to higher energy costs. Growth in Australia set to slow. US Fed looks to be in no hurry to cut again. AU jobs report out today. Global Trends The positive sentiment that ran through markets over recent days gave way overnight, with the harsh reality of the situation in the Middle East and a few macro factors dampening the mood once again. European and US equities declined with the S&P500 shedding ~1.4%, while...

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18 Mar 2026

Fed holds rates, downplays oil price-driven shift in risk calculus

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this afternoon and did little to acknowledge an Iran war-driven shift in the balance of risks facing the US economy in the accompanying statement, suggesting that officials could resist adopting a more hawkish posture in the near term. In the widely-expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted by an 11-to-1 margin to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.50 and 3.75 percent. Trump appointee Stephen Miran dissented in favour of cutting rates, while Christopher Waller—who had previously lobbied for more easing while correctly anticipating a downturn in labour...

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18 Mar 2026

Bank of Canada holds, signals willingness to look through energy price shock

As markets had overwhelmingly anticipated, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, and expressed concern over persistent weakness in the Canadian economy, suggesting that policymakers are more concerned about downside risks to growth than upside risks to inflation as the world economy faces yet another supply shock. Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy rate at 2.25 percent for a third consecutive meeting after delivering nine cuts between June 2024 and September 2025. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers warned “With recent data pointing to weaker economic activity and uncertainty...

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18 Mar 2026

Oil prices slip slightly, bolstering market confidence

Financial markets are turning cautiously optimistic this morning as oil prices stabilise and investors position for a raft of central bank decisions. Several tankers registered to non-aligned countries crossed the Strait of Hormuz overnight, even as Iran continued its attacks on Israel and its Gulf neighbours, while Donald Trump said the US could end the war in the “very near future”*. West Texas Intermediate is trading below $95 a barrel, Brent at $103, equity futures are pointing to a second consecutive daily advance, Treasury yields are slipping, and the dollar is edging lower against a basket of its major counterparts....

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