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12 Mar 2026

Oil prices still dictating terms

• Oil jolt. Another jump in oil prices weighed on sentiment. Equities lower, USD firmer. NZD weaker. AUD underperforms after its strong run.• Twists & turns. Markets pricing a supply risk premium in oil. More volatility likely. RBA next week with chances of a rate hike now sitting at ~70%. Global Trends Middle East developments continue to be in the driver’s seat. Sentiment remained negative overnight with the jump in oil prices dampening the market mood. Brent crude oil is back above ~US$101/brl, a ~8.5% lift from where it was tracking yesterday, and ~74% above levels it was at in...

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