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16 Dec 2025

16 Dec 2025

US labour market signals

• Mixed signals. US data crosscurrents resulted in modest net market moves overnight. US equities consolidated. Oil prices fell. AUD lost a bit of ground.• US data. Core retail sales stronger, but PMIs underwhelmed. Labour market slack increasing with US unemployment highest since Q3 2021.• Macro events. NZ Q3 GDP due tomorrow. US CPI and ECB/BoE/BoJ meetings later this week. BoE expected to cut while BoJ could hike rates again. Global Trends Push-pull forces stemming from the large batch of US economic data released overnight resulted in modest net market moves. On balance, although the tech-focused NASDAQ ticked higher (+0.2%)...

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16 Dec 2025

Mixed payrolls report knocks dollar lower

US labour markets continued to cool in October and November, slightly raising market bets on a stepped-up easing campaign from the Federal Reserve next year. According to delayed data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a total -41,000 jobs were lost over the last two months—representing an undershoot relative to consensus forecasts—while the previous two months were revised lower by a total 33,000 positions, bringing the three-month average pace of job creation to 22,000, down from 62,000 ahead of the update. As expected, the federal government shed the largest number of workers, cutting payrolls by a total -172,000...

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