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10 Dec 2025

Hold the line

• US Fed. Another US rate cut announced. But guidance wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. Positive for sentiment. USD weaker. AUD close to year-to-date peak.• AU jobs. Australian employment data due today. Monthly figures are volatile. Another solid report would reinforce views RBA may hike rates in early-2026. Global Trends The US Fed meeting was the market focal point overnight. As expected, the US Fed delivered another 25bp rate cut, lowering the policy target range to 3.50-3.75%. This was ~90% factored in ahead of the event. Notably, the Fed’s updated guidance and economic projections were little different from last time...

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Federal Reserve cuts rates, telegraphs January pause

The Federal Reserve cut rates for a third consecutive time this afternoon, and opened the door to a January pause amid growing uncertainty on the economy’s underlying trajectory. In the widely-expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted by a surprisingly balanced 9-to-3 margin to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to between 3.50 and 3.75 percent. Trump appointee Stephen Miran against dissented from the majority in favour of a bigger move, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffery Schmid supported staying on hold. Markets had feared a more profound divergence would be on display, given that the October...

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Bank of Canada holds, maintains neutral outlook

As had been almost universally expected, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, and again clearly signalled that policy rates are sitting at near-neutral levels, minimising the likelihood of another move in the coming months. Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy rate at 2.25 percent after cutting at both the September and October meetings, and in the official statement setting out the decision, again noted that the current policy rate is “at about the right level” to keep inflation under control and sustain growth. Officials acknowledged signs of resilience in the Canadian...

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Currencies flatline into central bank decisions

Happy Fed Day to those who celebrate. Global risk assets are drifting lower, yields are a touch firmer, and the dollar is trading in the middle of its recent trading range as investors await what is widely expected to be a third consecutive “hawkish cut” from the Federal Reserve this afternoon. Data published yesterday showed US labour markets cooling, but not at an alarming rate. On the positive side of the ledger, the number of job openings surged to 7.67 million in October from 7.23 million in August, but this may have been driven by pre-holiday staffing increases. The hires...

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