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09 Dec 2025

09 Dec 2025

Hawks in the nest

• Consolidation. US equities tread water ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed decision. The USD index ticked up. AUD outperformed due to RBA rhetoric.• RBA shift. No change in rates yesterday but there were ‘hawkish’ signals. Inflation risks have changed. February meeting looks ‘live’ for a rate hike.• US Fed. Another rate cut expected. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance. A ‘cautious’ tone about more near-term rate reductions may see the USD lift. Global Trends Modest moves across most asset classes overnight as traders marked time ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed decision (Thurs 6am AEDT) and Chair Powell’s press conference...

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09 Dec 2025

Traders stockpile dry powder as Fed decision looms

Currency markets are drifting into Tuesday with a wary, slightly defensive tone, caught between a thin data calendar, declining volumes, and the growing sense that policy divergences are about to reshape the global landscape. Treasury yields are a touch softer after yesterday’s curve-steepening move, equity futures are pointing marginally lower, and the dollar is trading sideways against all of its major counterparts as traders brace for tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. This morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover release could provide critical insight on job market conditions. Unusually, the report—which will cover the entirety of September and October as opposed to...

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