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03 Dec 2025

RBA & US Fed divergence

• US data. Weaker US ADP employment reinforced US Fed rate cut bets. US equities ticked up & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD supported.• AU GDP. Topline growth a bit softer than anticipated in Q3, but under the hood private sector momentum picked up speed. Price pressures still evident.• RBA & Fed. Odds next move by RBA is up not down continue to rise. By contrast, a series of US Fed cuts are anticipated over the next year. Global Trends It was a case of “bad US economic news is good news for markets” overnight. More signs growth...

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