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28 Oct 2025

28 Oct 2025

AUD: worrisome inflation trends

So much for the inflation dragon being slayed. The Q3 Australian CPI data was a jolt to the system. Headline inflation rose 1.3% in Q3 to be 3.2% higher compared to a year ago, while the trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred gauge which gives a better guide to inflation persistence) rose 1% in the quarter or 3%pa. Inflation momentum has turned up with 3-month and 6-month annualised run-rates at levels that haven’t been seen since H1 2024 (chart 1). On our figuring a slightly greater share of the CPI basket is also rising by 3%pa or more. The Q3 CPI...

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28 Oct 2025

Australian inflation on the radar

• Positive vibes. Gains across the tech-sector pushed US equities to record highs. Base metals rose. AUD outperforms ahead of AU CPI data.• AU inflation. Q3 CPI due today. Acceleration in core inflation forecast. RBA rate cut expectations have been pared back. This might have further to go.• US Fed. Another US Fed rate cut anticipated tomorrow morning. Guidance will be important. USD volatility likely around the event given what is priced in. Global Trends The upbeat tone in risk assets extended overnight. Gains across the tech-sector (NASDAQ +0.8%) pushed US equities to fresh record highs (S&P500 +0.2%) with solid...

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