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07 Oct 2025

07 Oct 2025

RBNZ: not done yet

The “Go Big or Go Home” mentality was on display once again in NZ today after the RBNZ delivered an outsized 50bp interest rate cut as it attempts to jolt the stuttering economy back to life. The decision lowers the RBNZ’s official cash rate to 2.5%. This is ~300bps below the peak reached in 2023/24 when the world was fighting the post COVID inflation surge. As our chart shows, outside of the Global Financial Crisis, this is one of the most abrupt policy U-turns in several decades (chart 1). And in our opinion, the RBNZ may not be done yet....

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07 Oct 2025

Markets rally on AI hopes, yen continues its descent

Investors are making up for a lack of actual intelligence on the state of the economy by betting on artificial intelligence instead. The dollar is attracting inflows, mid-curve Treasury yields are pushing higher, and equity futures are pointing to further gains at the open after OpenAI and Advanced Micro Devices yesterday announced they would collaborate to build AI data centres, with the ChatGPT maker agreeing to buy tens of billions of dollars’ worth of chips from AMD while taking a 10-percent stake in the chipmaker over time. The euro is consolidating around lower levels as the dust settles after French...

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