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31 Jul 2025

31 Jul 2025

US jobs report in focus

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped back & USD ticked up overnight. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot. JPY weaker after some BoJ comments.• US data. US jobs report out tonight. There has been a tendency for non-farm payrolls to exceed analyst forecasts the past few months. Will this continue?• AUD trends. The unfolding pull-back in the AUD isn’t unusual at this time of year. Late-July/August is typically a negative period for the AUD. Global Trends Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with US and European equities slipping back, bond yields consolidating, and the USD ticking up a bit further. The...

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31 Jul 2025

US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Growth Slows

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exhibited signs of acceleration last month even as personal spending growth slowed, providing more evidence of a “stagflation-lite” situation in the US economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index—which excludes food and energy costs—rising 0.3 percent in June from the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, core prices rose 2.8 percent, slightly narrowing the gap between the Fed Funds rate and underlying inflation. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.3 percent relative to the prior month, and was up 2.6 percent...

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