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21 Jul 2025

Positive vibes

• Upbeat tone. No news has been good news. US equities rose, while bond yields & USD slipped back. AUD a bit higher at start of new week.• RBA guidance. RBA meeting minutes out today. Governor Bullock speaks later in the week. Will the RBA support expectations looking for multiple cuts?• Data flow. Global PMIs due later this week. US corporate earnings also in focus with over 100 companies in S&P500 reporting over the next few days. Global Trends It has been a relatively positive start to the new week for risk assets. The US S&P500 (+0.1%) touched yet another...

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Yen Climbs, Dollar Retreats As Data-Light Week Kicks Off

Amid a quiet start to the week, the Japanese yen is finding modest support even after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s governing coalition lost its majority in the Upper House, suggesting that currency markets had largely priced in the outcome ahead of yesterday’s vote. The Liberal Democratic Party—dominant in Japanese politics for all but five of the past seventy years—shed 16 of the 66 seats it defended, as both new and established opposition parties capitalised on public frustration over surging living costs. Wages have lagged behind inflation since the pandemic, and rice prices—arguably as central to Japan’s inflation psychology as gasoline...

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