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17 Jun 2025

17 Jun 2025

Worries return

• Turnaround. Middle East concerns returned overnight. Oil rose, US equities & bond yields declined. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost ground.• Fluid situation. More headline driven volatility looks likely near-term. As seen the past few days sentiment can turn course quickly.• US Fed. No policy changes expected tomorrow. But will the US Fed tweak its ‘dot plot’ given inflation risks stemming from trade tariffs? Global Trends Geopolitical driven market gyrations continued overnight. Yesterday’s cautiously optimistic view on the Israel/Iran conflict reversed course with sentiment souring again. President Trump cut short his time at the G7 meeting and a flurry...

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17 Jun 2025

Dollar’s Decline Remains Intact Even As Risk Backdrop Worsens

The dollar is up slightly this morning, but remains on course toward its worst year-to-date performance in this century, even as geopolitical risks simmer in the background and the Federal Reserve grapples with a raft of potential inflation risks. Yields are under pressure, equity markets are headed for a mixed open, and measures of risk sentiment are softening ahead of an expected Israeli assault on Tehran later today — as well as tomorrow’s all-important Fed meeting. American consumers turned slightly more cautious in May, paying little heed to a 90-day tariff pause announced by the Trump administration — and the...

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