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05 Jun 2025

US jobs in focus

• US wobbles. US equities declined & USD softened. Public spat between Musk & Trump intensified. AUD touched a fresh year-to-date high.• Macro trends. ECB delivered a ‘hawkish’ cut. Tweaks to inflation forecasts & rhetoric suggest ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle.• US jobs. Monthly US jobs figures in focus tonight. Various indicators point to a cooling US labour market. Will the data spring a surprise? Global Trends A couple of push-pull forces generated a few wobbles overnight. On net, in contrast to the modest uptick in European equities the major US markets declined (S&P500 -0.5%) with...

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Traders Hunker Down Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

Trading ranges are shrinking and short-term volatility gauges are pointing to turbulence ahead as currency market participants move to the sidelines in the run-up to tomorrow’s all-important non-farm payrolls report. Traders expect a modest slowdown in hiring and a steady unemployment rate, but uncertainty is high, and the implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory are significant. The dollar is almost unchanged, ten-year Treasury yields are inching higher after tumbling in yesterday’s session, and equity futures are pointing toward almost-imperceptible gains at the North American open. The European Central Bank cut its benchmark rates by a quarter point – as...

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