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01 May 2025

01 May 2025

US payrolls in focus

• US trends. US equities rose, as did bond yields & the USD. US ISM better than expected. Reports about potential US/China trade talks also helpful.• Macro news. Dovish tilt from BoJ weighed on JPY. US jobs report tonight. Signs the labour market is holding up could be USD supportive & drag on AUD.• AU election. Federal election takes place tomorrow. Polls pointing to a Labor win. We don’t expect the outcome to impact the RBA trajectory or the AUD. Global Trends Sentiment towards US assets continued to improve overnight with equities rising and the USD index appreciating. Stronger earnings...

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01 May 2025

Risk-Sensitive Asset Prices Climb As Yields Fall

Markets are rallying this morning on optimism surrounding the prospect of more easing from the Federal Reserve as well as the growing likelihood of trade “deals” between the United States and its partners. Yields are down across the curve as investors bet a slowing economy could give central bankers more room to cut rates and equity indices are climbing in line with hopeful statements from administration officials currently negotiating agreements with Japan, India, and other countries. The dollar is up sharply. Data published yesterday overstated the scale of the downturn in the US economy. A massive jump in the trade...

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