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30 Apr 2025

30 Apr 2025

US economic tariff pain

• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs meant US GDP contracted in Q1. Forward indicators point to slower US domestic growth over 2025.• AU CPI. Q1 inflation a little higher than consensus but inline with RBA’s thinking. Underlying trends point to further RBA interest rate relief in May. Global Trends Despite a deluge of global economic data, particularly out of the US, and a few intra-session bursts of volatility the...

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30 Apr 2025

Risk Appetite Falls As Stagflation Risks Stalk US Economy

A six-day improvement in risk appetite appears to be stalling out across the financial markets this morning, bolstering a “mean-reversion”* trade that has seen the dollar creep higher against most of its rivals through the early part of the week. Treasury yields are ticking higher, North American equity indices are poised for losses at the open, and safe-haven currencies are outperforming their risk-sensitive brethren. The American economy shrank for the first time since 2022 in the first quarter, but the slowdown wasn’t as profound as the headline number would suggest. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product contracted at an annualised -0.3-percent pace...

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