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19 Feb 2025

AUD/NZD: RBNZ downshift continues

The cavalier Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues to spread its ‘dovish’ wings. The RBNZ announced another 50bp interest rate cut today, the third straight meeting it delivered an outsized reduction. The move lowers the Official Cash Rate to 3.75%, after being as high as 5.5% last-July. As shown, outside of the GFC, the 175bps worth of rate cuts delivered by the RBNZ over the past 7 months has been the most abrupt policy U-turn in several decades (chart 1). The rapid-fire reduction in the level of the RBNZ OCR follows the very abrupt hiking cycle that was unleashed on...

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RBNZ stands out from the crowd

• Holding. Despite some swings in other asset classes net moves in FX have been modest. JPY outperformed. AUD still hovering near the top of its range.• RBNZ cuts. Another 50bp rate cut by the RBNZ yesterday. More easing is projected. This contrasts the RBA. We expect AUD to outperform the NZD.• AU jobs. Labour force data due today. Another solid set of figures anticipated. If realised, this will support the RBA’s ‘hawkish’ guidance about more rate cuts. Global Trends Mixed fortunes across asset markets overnight as geopolitical and economic news pushed and pulled on sentiment, especially in Europe. In...

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Price Action Eases As Data Deluge Slows

Price action in financial markets looks remarkably muted this morning as shell-shocked investors stay sidelined against a quiet data backdrop. The dollar is inching higher amid thin trading volumes, most major pairs are within 0.2 percentage points of yesterday’s close, the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is less than a basis point higher, and North American equity markets are setting up for a modestly-positive open. Currency traders yawned when Donald Trump issued a new round of tariff threats last night, this time promising to hit automotive imports, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors with taxes “in the neighbourhood” of 25 percent. “It’ll go very...

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