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13 Feb 2025

Upbeat end to the week

• Positive vibes. Equities rise, yields fall. USD loses ground. Favourable US PPI & geopolitical/tariff news support sentiment. AUD & NZD lift.• Tariff news. ‘Reciprocal’ US tariffs in the pipeline. Likely to be formally announced by 1 April. Markets breathe a short-term sigh of relief.• Macro events. US retail sales due tonight. Next week the RBA & RBNZ meet. Rate cuts expected by both, though the RBNZ should be more aggressive. Global Trends There were a few more pockets of headline-driven volatility overnight. But on balance, risk sentiment has been positive with favourable data and geopolitical developments coming through. Equities...

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Sticky Producer Price Inflation Leaves Markets Largely Unmoved

Input price inflation rose at faster pace than anticipated in the United States last month, but details under the hood indicated a moderation in some services categories, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator could slow in month-over-month terms when it is reported next week. Producer prices for final demand climbed 0.4 percent in January relative to the prior month, topping forecasts for a 0.3 percent increase, and rising 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, but airline fares and medical care costs declined, putting pressure on the key components that feed through into the core personal consumption expenditures index....

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