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20 Jan 2025

20 Jan 2025

Trump & tariffs

• US politics. President Trump is officially back in power. Reports tariffs could be implemented in a ‘measured way’ eased market nerves.• USD trends. Lack of follow through of election tariff threats exerted downward pressure on the USD. AUD & NZD bounced back.• Still watching. Various policies will be implemented. Vol. likely over period ahead. Short-term USD could ease helping AUD claw back more ground. Global Trends US politics has been in focus. Earlier today President Trump was inaugurated as the 47th US President. Outside of the inauguration there was little for markets to digest. US bond and equity markets...

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20 Jan 2025

Markets Rally as Trump Backs Off Tariff Threats

Financial markets are staging an across-the-board relief rally after the Wall Street Journal said president-elect Donald Trump intends to stop short of hitting major trading partners with tariffs on his first day in office. Instead, he plans to issue a directive that asks federal agencies to “investigate and remedy persistent trade deficits and address unfair trade and currency policies by other nations”. Most major currencies are up roughly 1 percent against the dollar—corresponding to our estimates of the tariff impact that had been priced in ahead of the article’s release—with the safe-haven Swiss franc the only exception among developed-market units....

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20 Jan 2025

Markets Stay on Edge Ahead of Inauguration

An uneasy calm is settling on currency markets as traders brace for a “shock and awe” campaign on the policy front when Donald Trump takes office for a second time this afternoon. Ten-year Treasury yields are under pressure after last week’s softer-than-feared inflation and retail sales numbers, the dollar is retreating against most of its rivals on reports of a “very good” call between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping over the weekend, and the euro and pound are advancing on a narrowing in cross-Atlantic rate differentials. Price action in currency markets could intensify shortly after the inauguration ceremony concludes....

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