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14 Jan 2025

Turbulent times

• Tariff news. Reports the Trump Administration might implement tariffs month-by-month calmed some market nerves. USD eased helping AUD & NZD tick up.• Stepping back. But moves were modest compared to recent trends. AUD & NZD remain near the bottom of their respective multi-year ranges.• Event radar. UK & US CPI released tonight. Several Fed members speaking. AU employment tomorrow. US retail sales & China data also due this week. Global TrendsIt has been a turbulent start to 2025, though a sense of calm somewhat returned yesterday after media reports suggested the incoming Trump Administration might implement trade tariffs on...

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14 Jan 2025

‘Gradual’ Tariff Plan Relieves Markets

Currency markets are breathing a sigh of relief after a report suggested that the incoming Trump administration could follow a “gradual” trajectory in ratcheting tariffs higher. According to Bloomberg, officials are considering an approach that would entail raising import taxes by 2 to 5 percent a month on major US trading partners, preserving the president-elect’s negotiating leverage while giving the government time to assess the impact on inflation. The greenback is retreating against many of its major peers, with the euro, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Mexican peso making the biggest advances. Flaws in the concept’s underlying logic suggest that...

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