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17 Dec 2024

17 Dec 2024

Commodity currencies under the pump

• Commodity FX. AUD, NZD, & CAD under pressure. AUD around levels last traded in November-2023. NZD touched a fresh ~2-year low.• Central banks. US Fed meets tomorrow, as does BoJ & BoE. Another Fed rate cut expected. Focus will be on its guidance & forecasts.• Already priced? Markets already factoring in fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025. It could be hard for the Fed to be more ‘hawkish’ than what’s priced. Central bank meetings will be the focus over the next few sessions with the US Fed (Thurs 6am AEDT), Bank of Japan (Thurs, no set time), and Bank...

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17 Dec 2024

US Retail Sales Firm, Canadian Inflation Decelerates

US retail spending climbed slightly more than expected last month, suggesting that resilient consumer demand could continue to power economic outperformance through the all-important holiday season. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in November, beating the 0.6-percent consensus forecasts, and up from a revised 0.5 percent in October. So-called “control group” retail sales sales – with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded – rose by a softer 0.4 percent, matching estimates. The dollar is holding firm, ten-year Treasury...

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