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04 Dec 2024

04 Dec 2024

Subpar growth weighs on the AUD

• Positive vibes. Equities power ahead. USD treads water. AUD underperforms. US data solid but not spectacular overnight.• AUD tumbles. Weaker than expected GDP weighs on AUD. Growth has slowed across the private sector but the level of activity is still high.• Policy impulse. RBA should hold steady next week. Upcoming US jobs report could impact market pricing for a December Fed rate cut. Global political ructions have continued but the direct market impact has been minimal. In France, as widely expected, a no-confidence vote in Parliament triggered a collapse of the government. France faces a month-end deadline to sort...

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04 Dec 2024

Markets Steady After South Korean Shock

The dollar is pushing higher, Treasury yields are steadying, and equity futures are advancing as the French government moves closer to collapse and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell prepares to deliver potentially market-moving remarks later this morning. The Korean won plunged yesterday when President Soon Suk Yeol shocked citizens by declaring martial law for the first time in 40 years, deploying the military on South Korean streets. The apparent autogolpe* attempt was quickly undone by lawmakers in an emergency vote – and the currency is now almost fully recovered – but markets have grown more uncertain about the future of...

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04 Dec 2024

AUD: Temporary GDP hammer blow?

The now dated Q3 Australian GDP has exerted downward pressure on the AUD (now ~$0.6415) with the already sluggish underlying growth picture undershooting analysts forecasts. This won’t surprise businesses at the coalface, particularly those in goods-producing and interest rate sensitive industries, with the GDP figures once again showing that higher mortgage rates and elevated prices are constraining private sector activity. The Australian economy expanded by 0.3% in Q3. As a result, annual growth decelerated to just 0.8%pa. Outside of the COVID lockdowns this is the slowest annual pace since the early-90’s recession. The detail in the national accounts can be...

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